Democrats are bullish that they can flip retiring Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-NE) House seat in November as the party tries to gain control of the lower chamber.
But first, voters must decide Tuesday between state Sen. John Cavanaugh and marketing consultant Denise Powell in the Democratic primary. Cavanaugh and Powell are locked in a bitter battle for the nomination, with the survival of the state’s so-called blue dot becoming a flash point in the election.
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Cavanaugh’s campaign, backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, has been mired in debate over whether his election would wind up hurting the Democratic Party in 2028, an argument that has been amplified by Powell.
Powell, backed by the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has blasted on the airwaves that Cavanaugh’s election would allow Republicans to get rid of the state’s electoral college system, which allows each district to have a single vote, in favor of a winner-take-all system.
In 2024, Nebraska’s blue dot awarded Vice President Kamala Harris one electoral vote, while the rest of the state gave Donald Trump its remaining four votes. In the lead-up to the presidential election, Trump pressured Nebraska GOP lawmakers to switch to a winner-take-all approach amid fears the 2024 race would come down to a handful of Electoral College votes.
Powell and her allies argue that Cavanaugh’s appointment would allow Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) to appoint a Republican to fill the remainder of his state Senate term, giving state GOP lawmakers an opportunity to eliminate Nebraska’s blue dot.
Republicans currently hold a 33-16 supermajority in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature, which is technically nonpartisan.
Under the current configuration, Democrats only need the support of one GOP vote to block legislation they oppose via filibuster. Such defections have helped Democrats defeat a six-week abortion ban, lowering the state’s minimum wage, and ending the district-by-district electoral college system.
If Cavanaugh wins and Pillen appoints a Republican, that leverage could be harder to wield. Even though Cavanaugh’s state legislature seat is heavily Democratic and the appointment would only be for two years, Republicans would likely make the most of the opportunity.
“We have fought so hard for fair representation, our Blue Dot, and to retain that electoral power,” Powell said in a May 8 statement. “We cannot afford a candidate whose campaign hands Republicans the votes to gerrymander us into oblivion.”
Powell continued, “Sending John Cavanaugh out of the Unicameral and into a congressional seat he can’t protect is exactly how we lose NE-02 — not just in November, but for the foreseeable future. Nebraskans deserve better, and on May 12, they have the chance to choose better.”
Cavanaugh has rejected the notion that Democrats will lose their foothold in Nebraska if he wins the nomination. He’s also not to resign until January after Democrats have the opportunity to gain seats in the legislature this November.
“Since joining the Legislature, I have helped lead the progressive fight to secure the blue dot and protect reproductive rights,” Cavanaugh said in a statement regarding the blue dot. “Democrats do not have to choose between standing up to Trump and protecting our Blue Dot. With strong Democrats running this cycle, I believe we will pick up seats in November, giving us more votes to protect the Blue Dot and reproductive healthcare.”
There other Democrats are also running: Army veteran Kishla Askins, nonprofit founder Melanie Williams, and Douglas County district court clerk Crystal Rhoades. However, Cavanaugh and Powell are seen as the front-runners.
The bitter Democratic primary has seen significant spending from outside groups, with over $5 million having been spent, according to the Nebraska Examiner. Republicans have gotten involved too, with American Action Network, a nonprofit group tied to House GOP leaders, purchasing a digital ad buy that thanks Cavanaugh for “sponsoring Trump’s MAGA agenda.”
Cavanaugh has attacked Powell over the outside spending, accusing her campaign of being boosted by dark money groups and millionaires. One attack is over a canceled ad reservation from a pro-Israel group, Democratic Majority for Israel, supporting Powell. Powell has rejected the notion that she took AIPAC money, claiming she has “never taken a dime.”
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is slated to lean Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report. Harris won the seat over Trump in 2024 by 4 percentage points.
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Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilman.
The Washington Examiner has reached out to Cavanaugh and Powell for comment.
