QUID PRO STATUS QUO?: Under the terms of a draft memorandum of understanding that President Donald Trump is said to be considering, the war with Iran would stop, and then over a period of 30 days, the status of negotiations would revert to where they were Feb. 27, when Iranian negotiators were offering proposals to deal with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and promising to forswear any program to develop nuclear weapons.
The Strait of Hormuz would return to its status as a free, international waterway, and the U.S. would gradually lift its blockade of Iranian ports. A 60-day ceasefire would follow, and Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would take up where they left off, negotiating terms of a more extensive deal designed to ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.
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But it’s not like the 39-day Operation Epic Fury, which took out more than 15,000 targets, didn’t accomplish anything. Vice President JD Vance told reporters at Joint Base Andrews last evening.
“If you look at what we’ve already accomplished here, assuming that we’re able to get to a final agreement, we’re reopening the Strait of Hormuz, we’ve already decimated their conventional military, and we’re in a position where we can substantially set back their nuclear program — not just during the term of this president — but over the long term,” Vance said. “So we’re not there yet, but we’re very close. We’ll keep on working at it.”
IRAN SUPPORTS OMAN AFTER TRUMP THREAT TO ‘BLOW ’EM UP’
WAITING FOR TRUMP: Iran has yet to confirm that a solid offer is on the table, and, according to Axios, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, quoted a source that claimed the MOU had not been finalized.
“We, you know, perhaps have the makings of a deal here,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a White House briefing. “Everything depends on what the president wants to do, and President Trump is not going to make a bad deal for the American people, for the U.S., and he was very clear at the Cabinet meeting on what he wants.”
Bessent called the proposed interim deal a “multifaceted agreement,” and insisted Iran would get no sanctions relief until it demonstrates good faith. “Nothing is going to be on the table until we see the Strait of Hormuz open, and the Iranians agree that they have to turn over the highly enriched uranium and that they can’t have a nuclear program.”
“The teams have been going back and forth, and President Trump has made it very clear … he has several red lines,” Bessent said. “Iran has to turn over their highly-enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a nuclear weapon. And the Strait of Hormuz …has to be free and open, as it was before.”
“It’s hard to say exactly when or if the president’s going to sign,” Vance told reporters. “I do think we’ve made a lot of progress here. It’s very clear that I think the Iranians — they want a deal. Hopefully, we’ll continue to make progress. The president will be in a position where he can endorse the agreement. But obviously, that’s still TBD.”
“I can’t guarantee that we’re going to get there,” Vance added, “but right now I feel pretty good about it.”
BESSENT SAYS NO SANCTIONS RELIEF FOR IRAN UNTIL ENRICHED URANIUM IS HANDED OVER
‘A PRE-DEAL TO GET TO THE BIG DEAL’: Critics are pointing out the obvious, the proposed memorandum of understanding is not a nuclear deal, and doesn’t advance any of the goals Trump set out when he announced the military campaign. No regime change, no resolution of Iran’s stockpile of uranium, no limits on missile production or support for proxies.
“We’re basically negotiating here to get back to zero, which is to a situation where the Straits of Hormuz were an international waterway with free passage for everybody that wasn’t even on the table when this war started, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman said on CNN last night. “This is the pre-deal to get to the negotiations for the big deal.”
“Once the Strait is open and Iran is trading its oil again, they have an economic windfall, and so there’s less leverage,” says former national security official Brett McGurk. “White House demand is, ‘You have to totally suspend enrichment.’ I really hope the Iranians do that, but that’s going to be very tough.”
“The President is scrambling just to get back to where we were,” Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) argued on CNN last night. “We are in a much worse situation right now than we were before the war started.”
It was a wag-the-dog expedition for Donald Trump, Goldman said. “He’s going to give billions of dollars now, reopen Iranian oil with no guarantee that they will stop enriching. This is a terrible deal because it was a terrible decision by the President.”
TRUMP BOASTS HIS IRAN DEAL WILL BE THE BEST: HIS CRITICS FEAR THE WORST
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HAPPENING TODAY: In Singapore, which is 12 hours ahead of Washington, the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, is getting underway.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to give a speech on U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific on Saturday morning, which will be at 8:30 p.m. EDT. A bipartisan congressional delegation is also attending, led by Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Pete Ricketts (R-NE).
A full agenda can be found here. Hesgeth’s speech will be live-streamed here.
FREE THE FUNDS: Bipartisan frustration is boiling over in Congress over the unexplained holdup of $400 million in security assistance for Ukraine and $200 million for the Baltic States. In a letter to Hegseth, signed by three Democrats and three Republicans, lawmakers demanded that funds — appropriated by Congress — be disbursed without further delay.
“Ukraine has persistently and bravely repelled a four-year Russian onslaught, but its military needs and deserves continued American support. Maintaining Ukrainian capabilities and pressure are particularly timely as the Administration tries to negotiate an end to the war and amid increasing signs of a weakening Russian economy,” the six senators wrote. “Accordingly, the $400 million in security assistance for Ukraine that was included in the FY26 defense appropriations bill should be disbursed immediately.”
“We urge you to obligate Congressionally appropriated FY26 funds in Public Law 119-75 for Ukraine and the Baltic Security Initiative without any further delay.”
“Any further delays — particularly as the Department reportedly plans troubling U.S. troops withdrawals from the region — risks our ability to adequately deter Russia,” the letter said. It was signed by Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NE).
RUSSIAN DRONE HITS NATO ALLY: A Russian drone that apparently veered off course during an overnight attack on Ukraine crashed into an apartment building in Galati in eastern Romania, injuring two people.
“Russia’s reckless behavior is a danger to us all. They continue to target civilians and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine. And last night showed yet again that the implications of their illegal war of aggression don’t stop at the border,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in a post on X.
“I just spoke with President [Nicușor Dan] of Romania,” Rutte said. “I assured him of NATO’s absolute solidarity with Romania and expressed sympathy for those injured in the incident. I affirmed that NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory. We will continue to enhance our readiness to deter and defend against any threat, including from drones.”
In response to the incident, Romania’s Foreign Ministry is asking NATO for a faster transfer of anti-drone capabilities, calling the drone incursion “a serious violation of international law,” but “not an attack from Russia.”
“We stand with our NATO Ally Romania and condemn this reckless incursion on its territory. Our thoughts are with the injured in Galati,” U.S. NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker posted on X. “We will defend every inch of NATO territory.”
TRUMP BACKS ARMENIAN LEADER AFTER COUNTRY PIVOTS TO ALIGN WITH US AND TURKEY
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump boasts his Iran deal will be the best: His critics fear the worst
Washington Examiner: Bessent says no sanctions relief for Iran until enriched uranium is handed over
Washington Examiner: Iran supports Oman after Trump threat to ‘blow ’em up’
Washington Examiner: Iran arrested at least 6,000 people since war began: Rights group
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian veterans are returning injured, broken, and angry. How can the government help them survive?
Washington Examiner: Commercial tracking data being used by adversaries to target US troops: CENTCOM
Washington Examiner: Guatemala wants US ‘assistance’ with ‘active military operations’ to combat cartels
Washington Examiner: Board of Peace won’t ‘hoard’ $1 billion pledges as lump sum and will ‘collect the funds necessary’ as Gaza rebuilds
Washington Examiner: Blue Origin rocket explodes on launchpad during engine-firing test
Washington Examiner: DOJ charges dual Iraq-Iran national accused of attempting 20 terrorist attacks
Washington Examiner: Trump backs Armenian leader after country pivots to align with US and Turkey
Washington Examiner: These FIFA host cities could see chaos if Trump shuts down customs at airports
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump isn’t abandoning NATO. He’s rebalancing it
Washington Examiner: Opinion: British GCHQ spy chief appeases China’s aggression
AP: Vance seems to move goal posts for achieving one of Trump’s key objectives for launching the war
New York Times: Bombs, Bargains and Bluster: Trump’s Iran Approach Sows Confusion
Reuters: Ukraine to Buy 20 New Gripen Jets, Sweden to Donate Older Jets Sooner
AP: With a stalemate in Ukraine and discontent at home, Putin seems ready to escalate his war
Breaking Defense: Epic Fury Highlighted Space Force Needs for Distributed Ops, EW Sites
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Vance to USAFA Grads: AI Changes Warfare, But Not Who Makes Decisions
Air & Space Forces Magazine: First Airman Graduates from Army’s New Jungle School, with More to Follow
Inside Defense: Air Force Fighter Inventory Dips Below Legal Minimum as Service Renews Push for ‘Combat-Coded’ Standard
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Northrop: Faster B-21 Production Allows Air Force to Consider a Bigger Fleet
Breaking Defense: In Cyber Race Against China, CYBERCOM Bets on ‘Quality over Quantity’
Defense One: How the Pentagon Plans to Spend $50 Billion on Drone Warfare
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Hypersonic Startup Nabs Contract For High-Speed Drone Testing
The War Zone: MQ-28 Ghost Bat Now Flying over the Pacific from US Navy Base
DefenseScoop: DOD Wants More Than $2B in Fiscal 2027 to Move Beyond ‘Fragmented’ CJADC2 Deployments
DefenseOne: The Navy Used Drones to Sink a Retired Warship
Washington Post: Opinion: Blocking the construction of data centers is a national security risk
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | MAY 29
8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A Framework for U.S.-Japan Cooperation in the Arctic,” with Ryan Burke, professor, U.S. Air Force Academy; retired Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force Capt. Takahiro Ishihara; Chisako Masuo, associate professor, Kyushu University; and Connor McPartland, associate director, Atlantic Council Transatlantic Security Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-framework-for-us-japan-cooperation
7 p.m. 610 St. SW — Politics & Prose book discussion: The Theater: Courage and Survival in the Defining Atrocity of the Ukraine War, with James Verini, writer, the New Yorker, the New York Times Magazine and National Geographic; William Taylor, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine; and Ukraine Ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna; https://politics-prose.com/james-verini-052926
8:30 p.m. (8:30 a.m. Saturday, Singapore) — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivers plenary remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue on the topic, “U.S. Strategy for Peace in the Indo-Pacific.” https://www.iiss.org/press/2026/05/us-secretary-of-war-pete-hegseth https://www.war.gov/News/Live-Events/
TUESDAY | JUNE 2
10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Review of the FY2027 State Department Budget Request,” with testimony from Secretary of State Marco Rubio http://foreign.senate.gov
2 p.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing: “Budget Hearing – Department of State and Related Programs,” with testimony from Secretary of State Marco Rubio http://appropriations.house.gov
2 p.m. 138 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security,” with testimony from Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin http://appropriations.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 3
10 a.m. 2360 Rayburn — House Small Business Committee hearing: “Restoring America’s Industrial Base: The Role of Small Businesses in National Security” http://smallbusiness.house.gov
3 p.m. 138 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the http://appropriations.senate.gov
THURSDAY | JUNE 4
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee markup of H.R.8800, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2027.” http://www.armedservices.house.gov
FRIDAY | JUNE 5
8 a.m. H-140, U.S. Capitol — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee markup of the FY2027 Homeland Security bill http://appropriations.house.gov
