American families and businesses have a fundamental expectation of the electric grid: When they flip the switch, the lights should come on at a cost they can afford. As fundamental as that expectation is, Washington is putting it in jeopardy.
Driven by data centers, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and electrification, electricity demand is accelerating at a pace not seen in generations. According to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, data centers alone could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030.
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Across the country, the warning lights are already flashing. Reliability experts and grid operators increasingly warn that electricity supply will struggle to keep pace with rapidly growing demand, raising concerns about the grid’s ability to keep the lights on.
Utilities are responding by extending the life of existing power plants, investing in transmission, and planning billions of dollars in new generation. But at the very moment we need to move faster, federal policy is slowing us down.
In 2024, former President Joe Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency finalized a rule that places strict limits on greenhouse gas emissions from coal and natural gas power plants. These limits cannot be met with commercially available technology. Despite that, the rule remains the law of the land.
The rule is both legally flawed and technologically unworkable, and it puts utilities in an irreconcilable position. They must retire critical power plants early and severely limit how often new power plants operate. Neither action makes sense in the face of the reliability challenge at hand.
The rule is especially consequential for new natural gas plants, which are critical for meeting growing electricity demand while maintaining reliability. Unless those plants deploy technologies that aren’t even available, they are restricted to operating just 40% of the time.
Think about that in simple terms. If federal regulations required a new refrigerator to operate only 40% of the time, consumers would be forced to either buy additional refrigerators or accept spoiled food. The same logic applies to the electric grid under this rule: Limiting how often new power plants can run means consumers will ultimately pay for more power plants than they otherwise need.
None of this is theoretical. America’s electric cooperatives are making permitting and investment decisions right now that will determine whether there is enough electricity at the end of this decade.
Electric cooperatives are actively planning to bring more than 20 gigawatts of new natural gas generation online at a total cost of nearly $29 billion. That’s enough to power 17 million American homes. But so long as the 2024 rule remains on the books, most of those plants won’t be allowed to operate more than 40% of the time; some of them, no more than 20%.
Basin Electric Cooperative is planning to spend roughly $4 billion to build Bison Generation Station while facing substantial uncertainty about how the rule’s 40% operating limitation could affect the facility’s long-term economics. Oglethorpe is investing more than $3 billion in its Smarr Combined Cycle facility and faces a similar challenge.
Without repeal of the rule, costs will multiply as utilities are forced to invest in additional generation to compensate for plants that are restricted from operating when needed. At a time when the affordability of electricity is an increasing concern for families and businesses, the last thing we should be doing is asking consumers to pay for more power plants than are needed.
America’s not-for-profit electric cooperatives are owned by the consumers they serve and operate at cost. Every decision is made with an eye toward the impact on the consumer at the end of the line.
The implications here are staggering. America cannot lead in artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and other energy-intensive industries without a grid that is capable of supporting significant new electricity demand. And the grid cannot expand with a rule on the books that forces new power plants to operate only 40% of the time.
The solution is straightforward. The Biden-era power plant rule must be fully repealed.
President Donald Trump has pledged to restore American energy dominance. He has focused on protecting American families by keeping electricity reliable and affordable in the face of growing data center demand. The continued existence of this Biden-era rule threatens to undermine that effort.
The Trump administration has proposed a partial repeal of the rule, which is a welcome and necessary step. But until a full repeal is completed, the problem persists. Leaving constraints on new natural gas generation in place, even temporarily, will delay investment decisions, increase costs, and prolong uncertainty for utilities planning new generation projects.
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America’s electricity needs are growing faster than they have in decades. Meeting that demand requires a pragmatic approach grounded in reliability, affordability, and reality. Policymakers should remove barriers that discourage investment in new generation and grid infrastructure. Repealing the Biden-era power plant rule is an essential first step.
The consequences of getting this wrong will be felt not only in higher electricity bills but also in America’s economic competitiveness and energy security. If we fail to act, we won’t just be behind. We may well be in the dark.
Jim Matheson is CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, representing nearly 900 consumer-owned, not-for-profit electric cooperatives that provide power to 42 million people in 48 states. He previously served seven terms as a U.S. representative from Utah.
