1. Progressives ascendant in Michigan

One of the biggest proxy fights within the Democratic Party between the centrist establishment and progressive Left was decided in favor of the latter, with Abdul el Sayed narrowly triumphing over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI). Some trackers, such as NBC News, declared the race for el Sayed overnight, while the Associated Press called it Wednesday morning, with el Sayed leading by nearly 15,000 votes.

El Sayed’s victory comes despite a massive financial mismatch, with super PACs backing Stevens with around $65 million in total spending, much of it coming from AIPAC-aligned groups.

Progressive darlings supported el Sayed, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), along with a hodgepodge of left-wing figures such as Adam Hamawy, the Democratic candidate for New Jersey‘s 12th District; Melat Kiros, who is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America and defeated a 30-year Democratic incumbent in her own Colorado race; and controversial socialist streamer Hasan Piker.

Though el Sayed is not a member of or endorsed by the DSA, the group has mobilized its infrastructure to back him. He shares many of its policies and ideals, and the group is open about its preference.

Stevens was backed by establishment figures, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), and retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who wanted her as his successor.

The Michigan Democratic Senate primary was confirmed as a two-person showdown between concrete ideological factions last month when Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow dropped out without endorsing anyone. McMorrow pledged to endorse whoever won, and endorsed el Sayed shortly after NBC News called the race for him.

In the same state, progressives won a big victory after activist William Lawrence won out in Michigan’s 7th District. He won over two centrist candidates with impressive credentials: Bridget Brink was the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, and Matt Maasdam was a former Navy SEAL and military aide to former President Barack Obama.

El Sayed and Lawrence’s victories put the Democratic Party’s left wing back on the front foot after an embarrassing loss in Arizona checked its forward march. Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) crushed his DSA-backed opponent, Kai Newkirk, last month, taking two-thirds of the vote in the primary.

2. One key check for progressive momentum in Missouri

While progressive Democrats won the biggest race of the night, Tuesday wasn’t all good news for the insurgents.

Current DSA member and former progressive House “Squad” member Cori Bush attempted a comeback after she was ousted by the centrist Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO) in 2024. This attempt failed miserably, with Bell easily winning by double digits. In her last election against Bell, Bush only lost by 5.5%, and only after millions of dollars in AIPAC funding were funneled to her opponent. AIPAC spent much less on this cycle.

Bush attempted to focus the campaign on Israel, while Bell accused her of infighting while she was in office. Both tried to frame the other as indirectly serving Trump.

The district is heavily Democrat-leaning, and Bell is widely expected to keep his seat come November.

3. Trump’s endorsement proves its worth, with one embarrassing exception

Though his approval ratings have dipped in recent months, Tuesday once again proved that Trump’s hold on the Republican Party remains ironclad, with his endorsement deciding the crowded Kansas gubernatorial primary. In a six-way race, the Trump-endorsed Ty Masterson won readily with 43% of the vote.

The outcome of the race was unclear before Trump’s intervention. He defeated Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab, former County commissioner Charlotte O’Hara, businesswoman Stacy Rogers, Kansas Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and executive Philip Sarnecki.

Trump’s influence was also evident in Missouri, where State Sen. Rick Brattin (R) won a crowded primary for a newly redrawn seat. The race was characterized by a messaging battle to pitch who was the most MAGA, something solidified by the movement’s leader anointing Brattin.

DEMOCRATS FEAR LEFTWARD LURCH COULD MUDDLE MIDTERM MESSAGE

Trump’s endorsement further secured Mike Bouchard’s victory in Michigan’s 10th District and Rep. Tracey Mann (R-KS) in Kansas’s 1st District.

However, Trump’s endorsement wasn’t decisive in Michigan’s 8th District, in a case that baffled observers. Amir Hassan, a former law enforcement officer who secured Trump’s endorsement in June, was readily defeated by Thomas Smith, a retired engineer who suspended his campaign last month. Despite suspending his campaign, Smith was left on the ballot in the three-way race.