Will Newsom and Vance last as presumed 2028 front-runners? Experts weigh in

Published August 9, 2026 6:00am ET



Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel‘s assertion that early leads in the presidential cycle could quickly dissipate may be true, but he and other likely 2028 contenders would do well to keep their minds open.

While he has yet to announce a decision, Emanuel has suggested he will run as a Democrat in 2028. The race for the Democratic nomination is fast becoming crowded with a pack of possible rivals for the former Chicago mayor that are polling far higher than him, including Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and Josh Shapiro (D-PA), former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Emanuel contended last week that early leads hold little weight, telling Politico that being the presumed front-runner two years out from the election is “the kiss of death.” The Democratic nominee will likely face Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Republican side.

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