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Trump-backed candidates in Iowa, Georgia, and South Carolina all lost their nominations. Lindell now joins them. Although Trump’s endorsees have mostly prevailed in congressional races, his record at the state level has been decidedly mixed.

There is a logical explanation for the difference.

Republican voters are inclined to defer to Trump when choosing candidates for Congress. Nominating a congressman or senator is akin to sending a linebacker to Washington. The job is to block and tackle Democrats, vote for his priorities, and have Trump’s back.

Governors are different. Voters tend to care more about experience, temperament, and basic competence. Presidential loyalty is less important when the job is governing rather than fighting on cable television.

By that standard, Demuth, who looked like a candidate straight from central casting, was the obvious choice.

The idea that Lindell was ever a serious candidate was crazy. To put it bluntly, Lindell had zero qualifications.

Yet the institutional Republican Party of Minnesota somehow managed to be even crazier than Lindell.

At its convention earlier this year, the party endorsed neither Lindell nor Demuth. Instead, the party backed Kendall Qualls, an also-ran who finished third with 21.4% of the vote.

That outcome perfectly illustrated the state GOP’s long-standing dysfunction. For years, it has been broke, rudderless, and bereft of the basic political infrastructure needed to compete statewide. At one point in 2023, the party reported just $53 in cash and more than $335,000 in unpaid bills.

Politically, the biggest enemy of electable Republicans in Minnesota is not the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. It is the Republican Party of Minnesota.

That dysfunction matters because the North Star State is an extraordinarily difficult state for Republicans even under ideal circumstances.

Since 1932, Republican presidential candidates have carried it only three times: Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, and Richard Nixon in his 1972 landslide.

Unlike neighboring Rust Belt and Upper Midwest states, Minnesota has remained a Democratic bastion.

It has been 20 years since a Republican won statewide. The last was Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who narrowly won reelection in 2006. Pawlenty attempted a comeback in 2018 but lost the Republican primary to Jeff Johnson, who was later trounced by now-disgraced Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).

Minnesota eluded Republicans even during the 2010 tea party wave, a nearly perfect national environment for the GOP. Gubernatorial nominee (and now-Rep.) Tom Emmer lost to Democrat Mark Dayton by just 8,770 votes. That is close. It is also a loss.

In the years since then, Minnesota has looked competitive. Trump repeatedly made a play for the state. Then November arrived, Republican hopes faded, and Democrats won — just as they always do.

Minnesota is the great red mirage.

That does not mean Republicans cannot come close this year. Demuth is a credible nominee. Former television personality Michele Tafoya, the Republican nominee for Senate, is also a strong recruit.

The problem is Minnesota.

The other problem is 2026, which is shaping up to be a big Democratic year. Demuth must run against Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), one of the most durable political brands in the state, while Tafoya faces Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN).

All the stars must align for a Minnesota Republican to win statewide in a favorable Republican year. In a blue wave year, the task becomes almost unimaginable.

Paradoxically, Trump’s endorsement of Lindell could actually help Demuth in November. She can credibly tell voters that she is not a Trump Republican. She opposed his chosen candidate, withstood his endorsement, and defeated him anyway. That gives her political distance from the president.

Her bigger challenge is the lack of a functional Republican infrastructure. Close races in Minnesota almost always favor Democrats because the DFL has the organization and operation. Demuth may be a credible nominee, but she will be running without the institutional support a competitive statewide candidate needs.

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Even so, forcing Democrats to defend Minnesota has strategic value. Every dollar national groups spend protecting their nominees is a dollar they cannot spend in neighboring Wisconsin or other genuine battleground states.

Demuth and Tafoya do not have to win to be consequential.

Dennis Lennox (@dennislennox) is a political commentator and public affairs consultant.