ROME — For years, the European commentariat has warned that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would drag her country back toward dark traditions. The real test of that prophecy may now arrive in the form of a former army general whose politics make Meloni look like a liberal.

Roberto Vannacci’s new far-right party, National Future, has surged to around 7% in Italian opinion polls, establishing itself as the fifth-largest force in the country just months after the former general founded it. That followed his split from Matteo Salvini’s League. A survey published last week placed the party at 4.6%, snapping at the heels of the League at 5.8%. According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, National Future has since overtaken Salvini’s party outright and is gaining on Forza Italia, the other junior partner in Meloni’s coalition. With an election expected as early as next spring, Vannacci’s ascent is reshaping the political landscape.