Few Americans know that on July 2, 1866, Massachusetts Rep. Nathaniel P. Banks introduced H.R. 754 to annex British North America. Washington had just concluded the “Reciprocity Treaty,” so Banks considered it ideal to offer markets and citizenship in exchange for soil. Congress ultimately tabled the bill, but the raw geopolitical threat forced a Canadian confederation the next year as a desperate survival mechanism. Cold strategy dictated that entire episode. Sentiment did not.

Fast-forward to the present day, and Alberta is heading to the polls on Oct. 19 to determine its political and sovereignty future. The ballot asks not for an immediate exit, but whether Edmonton should launch a constitutional process toward a binding separation referendum. Regional Premier Danielle Smith is campaigning to remain and clinging to a superficial polling lead. This support rests entirely on economic calculation, not patriotism. Now, Washington has exactly a fortnight to upend that calculation and reset the price.