With the midterm elections fast approaching, a familiar story has taken hold of Washington. Driven by falling approval ratings for President Donald Trump and deep public anxiety over inflation, major polling models heavily favor Democrats. Projections suggest a “blue wave” is coming, giving them a clear path to take back Capitol Hill.

On the other side, conservative strategists point to their own safety net. They see a structural fortress of friendly voting districts, a massive cash advantage, and a favorable Senate map as a guarantee that Republicans will keep control.