1. Obama’s Job Approval in Comparative Perspective. A key factor in the congressional midterm is the standing of the president. Even though he is not on the ballot, the president is seen as the leader of the government and a political party, and candidates from that party are inevitably viewed in that context.
Right now, Barack Obama is about where Bill Clinton was at this point in 1994, as the following chart (per Gallup) makes clear:
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