The awful and obviously predictable outcome of President Trump’s surrender in Syria has now come to pass.
Turkey and Russia have announced an agreement to remove Kurdish fighters from northern Syria, a horrible development for the forces of freedom and Middle Eastern stability. This agreement supersedes the Kurds’ earlier attempt at an agreement with Russia and the government of Bashar Assad. Now, Turkey will move against YPG Kurdish units in northern Syria from one side, while Russia and its Syrian government clients will move in from the other. Crucially, all Kurdish fighting “elements and their weapons” will “be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.”
Those towns, especially the large town of Manbij, are strategic linchpins. Without them, the Kurds can be essentially starved out. There could be an immense humanitarian crisis.
In trying to suck up to Turkey’s Islamist strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump actually created the conditions for Turkey to make this deal with Russia. Turkey is at least nominally a member of NATO, which exists to counter Russian attempts at hegemony. For a half a century, Turkey was an especially important part of NATO. For it now to be working with Russia, against the interests not just of the United States but Europe as well, is a major strategic blow to the Western alliance.
If Russia ends up effectively dominating Turkey, the damage it can do in the eastern Mediterranean region is immense.
Meanwhile, by again vowing implementation of something called the “Astana Mechanism,” this agreement further empowers Iran. Why? Because Astana is shorthand for a series of meetings and agreements, detrimental to the Kurds, that is jointly to be guaranteed by Turkey, Russia, and Iran.
Much more can be said about the nightmare scenario that is developing here, but for now, leave it at this: There is not a single strategic or tactical gain for U.S. interests that has been gained from Trump’s order of withdrawal. In fact, more U.S. troops will be in the Middle East than before, but nations traditionally hostile to the U.S. are now ascendant.
This is disastrous, pure and simple.
