The first bit of public schadenfreude about former President Donald Trump’s deepening problems with federal documents seized from his Florida home came, predictably enough, from Hillary Clinton.
Clinton tweeted out a merchandise link to encourage people to buy “But her emails!” hats and shirts (not to make a buck, of course, but to help “defend democracy, build a progressive bench, and fight for our values”) days before the Trump search warrant was unsealed.
Supporters of the former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic nominee have always thought it a grave injustice that the investigation into her handling of sensitive government information became such a liability in her race against Trump. Now Mar-a-Lago is the ultimate “But her emails!” controversy, with the homebrew email server being replaced by the home itself.
HOW LONG WILL TRUMP’S POST-FBI RAID REPUBLICAN RALLY LAST?
Clinton, it shall be remembered, used a private email server with questionable security to shield her communications from government transparency requirements and was ultimately investigated under 18 U.S.C. 793 — the same section of the Espionage Act currently bedeviling her archnemesis. Her motives were likely paranoia about the vast right-wing conspiracy, plus a bit of boomer tech habits thrown in for good measure.
What Trump is doing and why he kept some of these documents at Mar-a-Lago is less clear.
The line favored by Clinton dead-enders has always been this: that both major presidential candidates were being investigated by the FBI ahead of the 2016 election, but voters only knew about Clinton. The obvious counterpoint was that Trump was always at greater risk of experiencing more than electoral consequences, a pattern that has continued to this day.
In the short term, the Mar-a-Lago raid has united the Republican Party behind Trump. To many conservatives, the FBI did not cover itself in glory during the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, and the former president’s most committed backers are skeptical of the deep state.
But at a minimum, the issue of sloppiness with classified information and potential corruption that plagued Clinton six years ago will be turned around on Trump with a vengeance. There will be comparable fantasizing about the Orange Man in an orange jumpsuit, reminiscent of the ubiquitous Hillary memes of yore, by the people my colleague Tim Carney calls “the ‘lock ’em up’ libs.”
While Republicans largely believe the Trump-Russia investigation was discredited by excessive reliance on dubious sources like the Steele Dossier, raising questions about subsequent federal inquiries into the 45th president, the latest revelations will turbocharge the Trump-as-Russian-double-agent fever dreams of the Left.
There will be intense speculation in these corners that Trump kept classified information to help Russia or sell it to the highest bidder. Prosecuted or not, there will be renewed talk of disqualifying Trump from the 2024 ballot.
But Trump’s legal exposure does appear greater than being let off with an FBI statement describing his handling of these documents as “extremely careless,” the fate which befell Clinton. And either way, he now faces Hillary-like political risks.
Whether Trump is charged or faces any semi-serious disqualification effort, the boxes retrieved from Mar-a-Lago will join the events of Jan. 6 as central to the Democrats’ and Never Trumpers’ case that the former president can never be allowed near the levers of power again. The Clinton email scandal was held up as a perfect example of the Clintons’ grift and entitlement. This will be used as an illustration of Trump’s recklessness and difficulty separating his personal interests from the public interest.
If consumer prices remain high, labor force participation rates low, or efforts to contain inflation send the economy into a recession, “But his Mar-a-Lago!” will come the reply.
Republicans, currently inclined to see a President Joe Biden-led set-up job or double standards with Hillary and Hunter Biden, will get to see what impact this has on the midterm elections. They will get time to think about whether this is what they want to be talking about and dealing with in the run-up to 2024, as opposed to the Biden administration’s record and the direction of the country.
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Trump has heretofore proven to be a far more resilient political figure than his 2016 general election opponent, even if she evinces a similar reluctance to leave the stage.
But there is a real possibility that the raid at Mar-a-Lago was the opening battle in the war for Hillary Clinton’s revenge.
