While there’s a raging debate about alternate paths to victory if Mitt Romney loses Ohio, it’s difficult to conceive of a plausible scenario in which he wins the election without taking Virginia. Though polls remain tight in the state, absentee voting (which Virginia allows residents to do in person) is particularly encouraging for Romney.

The indispensable Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report has put together a detailed spreadsheet breaking down Virginia absentee voting by county. The bottom line: while, compared with four years ago, absentee voting is off just about 1 percent in generally Republican counties that went for John McCain in 2008 , it’s down nearly 14 percent in counties that went for Obama. Wasserman cautions that these numbers don’t necessarily spell doom for Obama. But they are a troubling early indicator.