Most New Hampshire primary voters will hit the polls today, but nine of them already have. In tiny Dixville Notch, all nine registered voters have already cast their votes and the results are in: John Kasich leads the Republican side with three votes, to Donald Trump’s two. Bernie Sanders swept the Democratic side, winning all four votes.
The tradition dates back to 1960, making this the 15th presidential cycle in which Dixville residents have gathered at midnight to vote in a primary or general election.
It’s a quaint tradition, but does it do a good job of predicting who will win the New Hampshire primaries or the nominations?
Dating back to 1972, there have been 17 competitive party nominations, including this cycle. The winner of Dixville Notch has gone on to win the New Hampshire primary nine times and the nomination 12 times. Dixville Notch is actually better at predicting the party’s nominee (71 percent success rate) than it is at predicting who will win the state’s primary (53 percent success rate).
Given the small number of voters in Dixville Notch, you might think ties are common. Yet there have been only two ties in the 17 competitive primaries.
If Bernie Sanders is able to turn his Dixville Notch victory into a New Hampshire primary victory, he would be the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1980 to win Dixville Notch and the state primary. Just three out of nine Democratic Dixville Notch winners won the New Hampshire primary, while four won the nomination.
Republicans have had more success. If Kasich fails to win the GOP nomination, he would actually be the first Republican to win the Dixville Notch primary but fail to get the nomination for the presidency. That’s right: Dixville Notch has had a 100 percent success rate at predicting the GOP nominee in its eight attempts. Keep in mind, Kasich polls at 4 percent nationally and betting markets give him only a 3 percent chance of winning the nomination.
Only twice has the winner of the Dixville Notch GOP primary lost the state primary — in 1996 and 2000.
The Dixville Notch tradition also takes place in presidential general elections. That tradition first started in 1960. To this day, Richard Nixon is the only general election candidate to win the general election Dixville Notch unanimously. He still lost the general election to John F. Kennedy, but Nixon did win New Hampshire’s electoral votes.
There have been 14 Dixville Notch votes for the general election. On eight occasions, the Dixville Notch victor won New Hampshire, with six winning the presidency. The 2012 general election produced the only tie: five votes for President Obama, five votes for Mitt Romney.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
