AFTER MUCH HAGGLING, Poland has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the United States to develop and deploy elements of a ballistic missile defense system on its territory, for the ostensible purpose of deterring and if necessary defeating an Iranian missile attack against European NATO states. Russia for its part has insisted that any such missile defense system is directed against itself, and therefore inherently destabilizing.

Some have seen Poland’s foot dragging on the MOU as due to a fear of offending Russia, which provides the bulk of Poland’s natural gas supplies and which still poses a military threat. Having recently visited Poland to meet with representatives of the Polish military, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of State, I do not believe that this was actually the case. Rather, the Poles were driving a hard bargain to ensure a more “equitable” relationship under the MOU, meaning, in practical terms, technology transfer, workshare in the program, and trade concessions with the United States. It is not clear whether Poland got everything that it wanted, but it is clear that the signing of the MOU at this particular time is no accident, but a response to the Russian invasion of Georgia. This is Poland’s way of showing that Russia’s attempt to intimidate its near neighbors is not going to succeed, and specifically, that Poland is not afraid of the Bear. In return, Russia is once again threatening Poland’s natural gas supplies, while Russian generals fulminate and speak of dire military consequences.