House Speaker Paul Ryan sees Texas Sen. Ted Cruz “pulling ahead” in the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary and thinks that his victory there could spark a nominating fight at the Republican National Convention.
“Wisconsin is a fairly important signal as to whether we’re going to have an open convention or not,” Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, told the Times of Israel during an overseas trip. “If Trump wins it, then he’s putting himself on a pretty good path to clinching [the nomination] — the 1,237 [delegates] before the convention. If he loses Wisconsin, there’s a two-three week gap. It makes it more likely — though I don’t know [for sure] — but it makes it more likely that it’s an open convention.”
Republican delegate leader Donald Trump worry over the prospect of such a convention fight has turned to frustration in recent days, as Cruz opened up a sizable lead in the Wisconsin polls. Delegates required to vote for Trump on the first ballot would be free to vote for alternatives on successive ballots if he didn’t win immediately. Such a multi-ballot nominating vote would provide the most dramatic denouement of a GOP presidential in decades.
Trump wants the Republican National Committee to force Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, to drop out of the race. “Honestly, Kasich should not be allowed to run,” the former reality TV star told reporters in Wisconsin. “He hurts Trump much more than he hurts Cruz.”
RNC officials don’t have the authority to kick Kasich out of the race, because access to the presidential ballot is determined on a case-by-case basis at the state level.
The outcome of a contested convention will be determined, in no small part, by the rules adopted at the beginning of the convention. If the 2016 convention were to be played by the 2012 rules, Kasich wouldn’t be eligible to have his name entered into consideration for the nomination because he hasn’t won enough states.
“If that happens, we’ll have a contested convention, and there will be two candidates,” Cruz said Monday while campaigning in Wisconsin. “We’ll come in with a ton of delegates. Donald Trump will come in with a ton of delegates. It’ll then be about [seeing] who can earn a majority of the votes from the delegates elected by the people.”
It’s conceivable that the rules could be written in such a way as to allow the delegates to vote for a candidate who did not run for president, but Ryan emphasized that he will not jump into the race at the last-minute. “I think you should run, if you’re going to be president,” he said. “I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.”
