British election blog: doubt about the exit poll

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Sky News is reporting that an exit poll shows that the Liberal Democrats have captured Edinburgh South from Labour. This would not require a very big swing; Labour beat the Lib Dems 33%-32% in 2005. But presumably the exit poll shows a big gain in Lib Dem percentage, because otherwise Sky News would not have (or should not have) projected a winner if the exit poll was very close. If Sky News is correct about this, it suggests that the Lib Dems are making gains in Labour-held seats, which casts some doubt on the BBC/ITV/SkyNews national exit poll showing the Lib Dems actually losing a seat.

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