ARE GOP DOOMERS OVERREACTING? This has been the week that a deep sense of pessimism about the upcoming midterm elections set in among Republicans around the country. Not just the political class of consultants and others intimately involved in campaigns — they have been pessimistic for a while, although their sense of foreboding seemed to rise to a higher level in recent days — but also among those who follow the news closely but don’t get down into the weeds of the race for control of the House and Senate.
They were rattled by headlines like this, from the Cook Political Report: “GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Toward Dems.” They were unnerved by troubling assessments from conservative commentators. They were worried by reports from well-connected observers. They were vexed by stubbornly high prices for fuel and food.
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A lot of the elevated sense of pessimism is related to President Donald Trump’s job approval rating. It seems that every few days there is a new poll showing Trump’s number sinking a bit lower; the most recent was a Wall Street Journal survey that pegged the president’s job approval at 37%. The other most recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average were at 44%, 39, 35, 41, 43, 36, 35, 40, 33 — you get the idea. The RCP average is 38.7%, which is terrible for a president leading his party into midterm elections.
The political practitioners know that Trump’s rating is not going to change. On Sept. 9, this newsletter asked, “What if the result of the midterm elections is already pretty much a done deal? If 55 days before Election Day, the outcome is already baked in the cake and there’s not much that can be done to change things?” As far as Trump’s job approval is concerned, the answer then was yes, it’s not going to change. That’s still true now, less than 40 days before the election.
Nevertheless, there is also a sense among some that there is too much wailing and garment-rending over the current situation. Yes, Republicans are very likely going to lose, but maybe not by the blue wave, or even blue tsunami, that some are talking about. Optimists point to the 2022 midterms, when it was Republicans who were in the lead, with some expecting a red wave. When the election came, Republicans won, but by a far smaller margin than GOP leaders had thought. Now, maybe Democrats, while leading, aren’t quite as far ahead as they think.
“Many Republicans are believing/hoping in this idea, that it will be bad, but not real bad,” said one GOP politico. “It’s possible but not likely. Narrowly losing the House and holding on to the Senate is the best scenario. Losing both is a distinct possibility.”
Another conceded that there might be “a bloodbath nationally,” but urged Republican incumbents to stay away from whatever the hair-on-fire issue of the day is in Washington. “Stop using DC-based messages,” he recommended, instead urging a focus on “local, local, and more local.” There is still time to avoid total disaster: “It does not need to be a train wreck,” he said.
The first politico pointed to one particularly acute problem: “One thing that is consistently true in EVERY survey is the independents are against us,” he said. “Every survey.”
In an email exchange, David Winston, a longtime Republican strategist and pollster, said much the same thing. “The reason we didn’t have a red wave in 2022 is that Republicans ran a base election,” Winston explained. “That netted Republicans the best Party ID advantage in the history of exit polling, but unfortunately Republicans lost independents by 2 points — the key voter group in competitive races.”
Winston pointed out that in 2010, the Republican blowout that netted the party 63 seats, the GOP won independent voters by 19 points. “In 2010, Republicans won 242 House seats, and in 2022 Republicans won 222 seats — a difference of 20, about the same difference in the margin among independents,” Winston said.
Now, Winston concluded, the question is: where do independents go? “They are a center-right group, but currently 44% of them have an unfavorable view of both parties, and their top issues are economic-related by a very wide margin. President Trump has a very poor standing with that group.” The voters’ negative views of both parties and their high anxiety about the economy, Winston added, make the electorate particularly volatile this time around.
So what does this add up to? If the situation is as volatile as Winston suggests, that means it could improve a bit for Republicans (although it could also get worse). Perhaps the 2022 lose-but-not-as-bad-as-expected scenario is not only possible but likely. But of course, that’s still losing. The problem for Republicans who want to be optimistic is that the best-informed people running many races are simply not optimistic, although they are plugging away in the hope that things will improve.
Recently, a follower on X responded to something I had posted with the message, “Dude, you’re nothing but a doomer now.” Maybe that’s true. I have been saying things look bad for the GOP for some time now. But that is, in fact, how things look.
So are GOP doomers overreacting? In a situation where optimists believe the party will lose, but not by a lot, and pessimists believe it will lose in a landslide, it’s not unreasonable to say they’re all doomers of one stripe or another. Of course party leaders would prefer to lose by a little rather than a lot, if those were the only two choices. But winning? It’s hard to find a seriously involved Republican who thinks that’s going to happen.
