ON SYRIA: DEEP CONCERN, BUT NO PLAN: President Obama’s top spokesman called the stepped-up bombing against civilians in the Syrian city of Aleppo and the ensuing bloodshed “distressing,” but declined to say whether the administration is considering contingency plans to respond if the city falls, Susan Crabtree writes. “The kind of action that I’ve been talking about is the kind of conversation that we’ve been having through the United Nations and a number of bilateral conversations that the U.S. has been engaged in in the region,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters Thursday.
THE ROAD TO HELL: The Obama administration’s “good intentions” have helped pave “the road to hell” in Iraq and Syria, according to the highly-respected military analyst Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Here’s the opening paragraph of his sharp rebuke of Obama’s failed strategy: “There is nothing pretty about the rubble left behind by the collapse of the U.S. strategy for Syria. One of the most horrifying civil wars in modern history has gotten worse. Russia, Iran and Assad have all gained at the expense of the United States and its allies, and no credible scenario has promised an early end to the civil war, to the steady build up of factional sectarian and ethnic tensions, or to the long-term threat posed by Islamic extremism and terrorism.” Read the rest of his critique here.
SPEAKING OF FAILED STRATEGY: The former CIA station chief in Afghanistan is sharply critical of the U.S. war against the core of al-Qaida. Writing in the Cipher Brief, Kevin Hulbert, a former senior intelligence officer, argues the U.S. policy is long on tactics but short on strategy. “While we keep decimating their senior leadership, scoring small (but, important) tactical victories, the conflict just keeps on going and going, with no end in sight.” Read his analysis here.
CONFIRMED KILL: As if to underscore Hulbert’s point, the Pentagon confirmed the U.S. has killed another top al-Qaida leader you’ve probably never heard of. After a fews days of BDA (bomb damage assessment) spokesman Peter Cook pronounced a Monday drone strike near Idlib, Syria, against Egyptian national Abu al-Faraj al Masri a success.
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PEACE PRIZE GOES TO ACTUAL PEACEMAKER: The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos for his efforts to end the 50-year civil war in his country. The Nobel committee was undeterred by the fact that Colombian voters rejected the peace deal. And it decided against sharing the prize with Rodrigo Londono, better known as Timochenko, who is leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia or FARC. Santos and Londono signed the peace deal last month, only to see it go down to defeat in a nationwide referendum. The Nobel committee said the deal may be dead but the peace process isn’t.
RUSSIA’S NOT-SO-SUBTLE THREAT: In the wake of the admission from the U.S.-led coalition that it accidentally bombed Syrian troops last month after mistaking them for Islamic State fighters, Russia is vowing to protect the regime forces against future attacks with its advanced anti-aircraft missiles systems. It recently deployed an S-300 battery to augment the S-400 system already there. A Russian Defense Ministry spokesman made a point of saying that its missile defense crews won’t have time to use the hotline set up to avoid confrontations and miscalculation between U.S. and Russian aircraft. The Russians used the line of communications to inform the U.S. that it was bombing the Syrians, and the U.S. called off the strike. More than 60 Syrian soldiers were killed, and the U.S. has promised a full investigation.
STOLEN EQUIPMENT SALES: Eight people, including six Fort Campbell soldiers, have been charged with stealing more than $1 million of sensitive military equipment and selling it to others, who later re-sold it to anonymous online bidders living overseas in places such as China and Russia. Some of the equipment sold includes sniper telescopes and rifle accessories, machine gun parts and accessories, grenade launcher sights, flight helmets, communication headsets, body armor and medical supplies. Each faces up to five years in prison and a $250,000 fine for the conspiracy charge alone.
WEIRDO OR WHISTLEBLOWER? The Booz Allen Hamilton contractor who allegedly took classified information from the National Security Agency may just be a “weirdo,” current and former agency officials say, rather than a whistleblower or spy, Rudy Takala writes. “It’s not a repeat of Snowden, but it is another insider,” former NSA Deputy Director Chris Inglis said. “It could be quite harmful, but [so far] it’s not as malicious or nefarious.”
The White House, meanwhile, defended the Obama administration’s record of preventing spying and government leaks of classified information, but said modern communication technology is making it harder to fight these leaks, Susan Crabtree writes. The arrest of a National Security Agency contractor for alleged code theft, which the Justice Department disclosed Wednesday, is renewing a debate over whether the government took the necessary steps to prevent classified leaks after infamous NSA contractor Edward Snowden leaked reams of information about the nation’s surveillance system in 2013.
BAD FOR BUSINESS: The administration’s new agreement with more than 40 countries on exporting armed drones to foreign countries could hurt U.S. industry, according to experts and industry representatives. The “soft language” in the bill holds international companies to a lower standard for drone sales than U.S. companies, which could impact business, a representative from the National Defense Industrial Association said.
CARTER MEETS INDUSTRY: Defense Secretary Ash Carter met with the heads of three of the top organizations representing the defense industry on Thursday to talk about the Pentagon’s fiscal 2017 budget proposal, innovation, and working with international partners. “As the voice of America’s aerospace and defense industry, AIA strives to convene stakeholders to address matters of importance to our industry and to the nation. Based on what I heard around the table, we accomplished that here today,” said Aerospace Industries Association President David Melcher.
In addition to Melcher, Craig McKinley, CEO of the National Defense Industrial Association, and Alan Chvotkin, executive vice president of the Professional Services Council, also attended the meeting.
BERGDAHL’s McCAIN DEFENSE: Lawyers for accused deserter Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl have filed a petition for a writ of mandamus with the U.S. Army Court of Criminal Appeals asking that charges be dropped because of what they argue were prejudicial comments made a year ago by Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain. At the time, McCain said Bergdahl should face court-martial, and threatened to hold congressional hearings if he ended up getting no punishment. Bergdahl’s attorneys say the comments from someone with so much power over military budgets and confirmations amounts to undue influence on the outcome of the proceedings. You can read the legal argument here.
RANDY RON LEWIS: In a salacious story that admittedly has no broad national security policy ramifications, another case of a general behaving badly has been painstakingly confirmed and embarrassingly detailed in a 51-page Pentagon Inspector General’s report. The IG concluded that fired senior military assistant to the secretary of defense, Maj. Gen. Ron Lewis, used his government travel card at off-limits strip clubs, lied about it, drank too much in public, and hit on various women all while on official travel with Carter. In one case after three hours of drinking and dancing, Lewis racked up a $1,755.98 tab at the Cica Cica Boom club in Rome. He tried to pay the bill with his personal debit card, but it wouldn’t go through. So he was escorted by a woman from the club back to his hotel, where he retrieved his government card to cover the bill. The report reads as an object lesson in how to wreck a once-promising career.
LOOK, UP IN THE SKY: Today will feature an unusual number of flyovers of military aircraft in the skies of Washington and Arlington. F-16s and V-22s will be flying over military burials, and 20 World War II-era aircraft, including a B-25 Mitchell bomber and T-6 Texans, will honor disabled vets. And just before tonight’s Nationals playoff game against the Dodgers, four UH-1 Huey helicopters will fly over Nationals Park. Our friends over at WTOP Radio have compiled a handy spotters guide.
COOK TIMER: Scheduled time for Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook’s Thursday briefing: 2 p.m. Actual start time 2:13 p.m. Ruling: Well within Cook’s normal window of tardiness.
THE RUNDOWN
Reuters: Russia mulls restoring military bases in Vietnam and Cuba: agencies
Virginian-Pilot: The Navy’s most expensive aircraft carrier ever is on track to miss its delivery deadline – again
Military.com: Bath Iron Works Won’t Protest Awarding of Coast Guard Contract
Navy Times: Tug collides with LCS Montgomery, cracks the hull
USNI News: Navy Awards $101M To Electric Boat To Build SSBN Missile Tubes; UK Enters Manufacturing Phase On Successor-Class
Breaking Defense: How Robot Trucks Will Work: Army Roboticist
Defense One: The US Army’s Next Drone May Fit in a Soldier’s Pocket
UPI: New targeting system to double range of Russia’s Pantsir: Report
Marine Corps Times: Okinawa Harrier flights to resume
UPI: Pentagon mulling ways to keep Afghan troops from going AWOL while training in U.S
War on the Rocks: Reflections on long-range strike 15 years after American’s attack on Afghanistan
Defense One: There’s a Way Obama’s White House Can Save Syrian Lives, There’s Just No Will
New York Times: In Fight for Aleppo, Tangled Alliances in Syria Add to Chaos
Military Times: McCain agrees to drop veterans hiring preference changes from NDAA
AP: Philippines tells US no joint patrols in South China Sea
Calendar
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 7
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Shivshankar Menon talks at the Brookings Institution about his new book, Choices: Inside the Making of India’s Foreign Policy. brookings.edu
6 p.m. Gaylord National Convention Center, National Harbor, Md. The Navy League hosts its annual birthday ball for the Navy’s 241st birthday. navybirthdayballdc.org
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 11
11 a.m. Call in. Think tank analysts talk about what’s next for the U.S., Russia and Syria now that cease-fire talks have collapsed. wilsoncenter.org
1:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. The Stimson Center holds an event looking at Japan’s defense buildup and alliance with the U.S. stimson.org
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12
7 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington. Lt. Gen. Gina Grosso, the deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services, speaks at an Air Force Association breakfast event. afa.org
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Peter Lavoy, senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council, talks about security cooperation between the U.S. and India. csis.org
12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Navy Secretary Ray Mabus speaks at a National Press Club luncheon. press.org
