TRUMP: ‘I’M THEIR NUMBER ONE TARGET’: Iran has been fantasizing about assassinating President Donald Trump for years, ever since Trump ordered the drone strike that killed Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. In 2022, Iran’s now-deceased supreme leader posted an animated video depicting an autonomous ground vehicle, stalking and killing Trump on his golf course in Florida.
Two years later, the FBI investigated several Iranian plots to kill Trump and others including his former national security adviser John Bolton in the run-up to the 2024 election, resulting in the arrest of an Iranian posing as a businessman, who was subsequently convicted of trying to hire hit men at the behest of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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The Wall Street Journal is reporting that now Israel has shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill Trump, citing “people familiar with the matter,”
Several times during the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump alluded to the threat on his life from Iran. “We took out their first set of leaders. We took out their second set of leaders. They want to take out the U.S. leader, me. I’m on every list,” Trump said at a session with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte Wednesday. “I saw things this morning. I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess I’ve been a little bit lucky. But that maybe doesn’t last very long, because that’s the way it goes.”
Trump brought it up again in his closing news conference, before departing for the U.S. “They had another set of leaders. They’re gone. Now, they have another set of leaders. They may be gone. Who knows?” Trump said. “And you know what? I may be gone too, because I’m their number one target. It’s out all over the place. I’m their number one, because they’re scum.”
IRANIANS WAVE BANNERS READING ‘WE WILL KILL TRUMP’ AT ALI KHAMENEI’S FUNERAL
THE OLD SWITCHEROO: While sources say U.S. intelligence was not aware of a specific threat again, the Secret Service as President Trump was about to fly out Turkey, a country that borders Iran. Trump’s new luxury Air Force One was sent ahead to Mildenhall Air Force Base in England, while Trump followed in the old Air Force One, which has more sophisticated air defenses, according to the New York Times.
“The new Air Force One, the Times reported, “lacks the same defensive countermeasures that were security features of the old model, including its advanced antimissile capabilities,” citing to multiple officials who have been briefed on how the jet was retrofitted.
The White House insists the new plane — donated by Qatar and retrofitted on an accelerated schedule — is a “a state-of-the-art aircraft” equipped with “high-level security protocols that ensure the safety of the President and his staff.” In a statement, White House communications director Steven Cheung, said the plane switch was a bit of “misdirection.”
“As the President has said recently, there are many enemies of America who have their sights on him, and we use every tool at our disposal — including distraction and misdirection — to address those threats,” Cheung said.
On the flight from Ankara to England, Trump told a cover story that nobody was buying. “You’re saying there wasn’t a security concern?” a reporter asked.
“No, no. Why would there be?” Trump replied nonchalantly. “We sent it a little bit early so that we could let them see — the base — the whole base came out and saw the plane, and then we landed.”
Reporters noted they were told to keep the window blinds down, a standard procedure to make the plane less visible at night. Eventually Trump conceded they might be a threat. “You’re, you know, I mean, probably on a dangerous flight because of the sleazebags that we have to deal with.”
‘IT’S PERSONAL’: HOW AN IRANIAN ‘KILL LIST’ RESHAPED TRUMP’S APPROACH TO WAR
‘MORE ASPIRATIONAL THAN OPERATIONAL’: “It’s tough to know how seriously we should take it,” Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on CNN last night. “I have no doubt that it is aspirational for them. They fantasize about avenging the death of their top leaders.”
“The United States and Israel have collectively killed dozens of Iran’s top officials, including, of course, its Supreme Leader. So, this has been kind of in the Iranian bloodstream, the Iranian media writing about how they need to avenge the death of their Supreme Leader,” Sadjadpour said. “I suspect … that it is more aspirational than operational.”
“It’s hard to know, it’s hard to know exactly what that intel is,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), top democrat on the Armed Services Committee said. “It’s also easy to see that Israel would want to sort of buck up Trump, make him more willing to take on Iran more strongly. Netanyahu has been pushing for that tougher stance, a more hawkish approach, to Iran for quite some time.”
“I mean, look, Iran has been trying to assassinate American leaders for years now. So, Trump is maybe new on the list, but there have been several leaders who have been on the list for some time. And, in fact, that’s why it was so important that they had protection,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) , a frequent Trump critic said on CNN. “Remember, one of the first things that Donald Trump did when he came into office is withdraw the security from the security details from officials who are on Iran’s target list. So, it’s nice that he’s taking his own security seriously. He has not been taking these threats seriously from Iran for a long time.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: WHAT NEXT IN IRAN? President Trump was uncharacteristically out of the public eye yesterday, although he did talk to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone. On his order the U.S. pummeled 170 targets in Iran over 48 hours, but so far Iran is showing no sign of a crying uncle.
Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle, and ships that are using the Strait are mostly choosing the northern route controlled by Iran instead of the southern route along the Omani coast supported by the U.S.
The U.S. Central Command — in what it called a “fact check” on X — disputed Iranian state media claims that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is only permitted through routes designated by Iran.
“Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM said. “Since early May, U.S. forces have helped facilitate the successful transit of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude oil through the vital international trade corridor.”
Today in Iran, slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was laid to rest in his hometown of Mashhad after days of public mourning.
“ONE POORLY WORDED CLAUSE’: Many analysts point to the ambiguity of Paragraph 5 of the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding for Iran’s insistence that it has the right to administer control of the vital passageway. It was the key clause that was supposed to guarantee to reopening of the Strait Of Hormuz,
It required Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only,” and “conduct dialog with Oman to define the future administration.”
“Clause 5 was designed with the assumption that Gulf states would moderate Iran’s position vis-a-vis the strait through the discussions required by the clause,” The Institute for Study of War said in its latest Iran update. “This assumption did not take into account that Iran could fail to reach an agreement with the Gulf states and resort to using force to impose its desired ‘future administration’ of the strait on these states.”
“The language of the deal has left the two sides fighting over that point rather than making progress on a final agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program,” The Wall Street Journal reported in a story headlined, “The Fight Over Hormuz Boils Down to One Poorly Worded Clause in Trump’s Deal.”
The situation even has commentators on Fox News questioning the competency of the negotiators. “I also don’t think that Witkoff and Kushner should be the ones doing this. They’re business guys. They have not been effective in Ukraine, not been effective in Gaza. They have not been effective in this,” Commentator Brian Kilmeade, said on Fox News last night. “We have a State Department for a reason. Marco Rubio, even Democrats admit, has been looked at as a genius internationally.”
US-IRAN ‘TECHNICAL TALKS’ ONGOING DESPITE TIT-FOR-TAT STRIKES
REED: ‘ONE MISTAKE AFTER ANOTHER’: Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, has issued a statement decrying the “crumbling so-called ceasefire agreement,” which he says “threatens to renew military prolonged conflict and regional tensions in the Middle East.”
“President Trump and Secretary of Defense Hegseth underestimated Iran and failed to plan for obvious contingencies,” Reed said. “There has never been a true ceasefire. President Trump changes his mind on a daily basis, prolonging the conflict without a strategic plan to end it.”
Reed joined critics who blame Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for negotiating a weak deal to pause the war, which is only working to Iran’s advantage. “We have to insist upon diplomacy, but the way the President is approaching this, with his son-in-law and his golfing buddy as lead negotiators instead of a group of true professionals, is not getting the job done,” Reed said. “He has somehow weakened America’s hand while strengthening Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Under the Trump Administration, it has been one mistake after another resulting in lost lives, millions of dollars wasted, depleted munitions, and global instability,” Reed said, calling for an end to “this unauthorized war”
ISRAEL STAYS OUT OF US STRIKES ON IRAN — FOR NOW
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Hormuz tanker traffic grinds to a halt
Washington Examiner: Iranians wave banners reading ‘WE WILL KILL TRUMP’ at Ali Khamenei’s funeral
Washington Examiner: ‘It’s personal’: How an Iranian ‘kill list’ reshaped Trump’s approach to war
Washington Examiner : US-Iran ‘technical talks’ ongoing despite tit-for-tat strikes
Washington Examiner: Putin could escalate Ukraine war after September elections, Czech president warns
Washington Examiner: Pentagon seals deals for lasers used to target drone swarms
Washington Examiner: Trump’s desire to sell F-35 jets to Turkey faces pushback in Congress
Washington Examiner: Israel stays out of US strikes on Iran — for now
Washington Examiner: Israeli defense minister rebukes Trump’s suggestion that IDF will withdraw from Lebanon
Washington Examiner: Air Force cancels 135 promotions over ‘highly unprecedented’ testing error
Washington Examiner: Eight indicted over plan to attack White House UFC fight with drones and snipers
Washington Examiner: Apache pilots suspended after South Carolina beach air show
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China just fired a nuclear warning shot across the Pacific
Washington Examiner: Mexico vows to file criminal complaints in US after ICE shooting in Texas
Washington Examiner: Opinion: US-Iran skirmishes are the new norm
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Turkey is beating out Israel for Trump’s affection
Wall Street Journal: Iran Hatched Fresh Plot to Kill Trump, Israel Told U.S.
New York Times: New Air Force One Lacks Defensive Countermeasures of Previous Model, Officials Say
The Hill: White House Says Trump’s Air Force One Switch Was a ‘Misdirection’
Wall Street Journal: Fight Over Hormuz Boils Down to a Poorly Worded Clause in Trump’s Deal
AP: US and Iran Exchange Intensifying Fire Across Mideast, Threatening Ceasefire Deal
Reuters: NATO Upgrades Baltic Air Policing Mission to Air Defense
Breaking Defense: Pentagon Seeks to Shift $4.3B to Pay for Increasing Operation and Personnel Costs
Washington Post: How Mitch McConnell’s absence complicates the Senate’s business and war funding
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine’s Drones Are Now Reaching Siberia and Imperiling Russian Energy Assets
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine’s Six-Part Strategy to Survive the Global Run on Patriot Missiles
ProPublica: Top Legal Adviser to Joint Chiefs Is Stepping Down Nearly a Year Before Completing Term
Washington Post: Rubio tries to enlist other nations in antifa fight, but some allies recoil
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force to Train Weapon System Officers to Fly B-21s
The War Zone: Why Does the F-47’s Design Look So Different Than What Many Expected?
Defense News: UK Eyes $50 Billion in Pooled NATO Funds for New Long-Range Strike Initiative
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force’s New C2 System to Get Key Upgrades in 2027
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force and DIU Want Cheap Drones to Take on MQ-9 Missions
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Finalizes New Acquisition Structure, Names 9 Portfolio Executives
Foreign Affairs: David Petraeus: The Ukraine Lesson Taiwan Keeps Missing
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | JULY 10
10:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Taiwan’s Institutional Defense: Countering CCP Infiltration and Transnational Repression,” Kai-Chieh Hsu, National Security Court judge for the Taipei District Court; and Miles Yu, director, Hudson China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/taiwans-institutional-defense
TUESDAY | JULY 14
2 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army and the Center for Strategic and International Studies Strategic Landpower Dialogue,” with Lt. Gen. Frank Lozano, portfolio acquisition executive for fires; Tom Karako, director, CSIS Missile Defense Project, and senior fellow, CSIS Defense and Security Department, retired Lt. Gen. Leslie Smith, AUSA vice president for leadership and education at AUSA https://www.csis.org/events/strategic-landpower-dialogue
3 p.m. — Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at Brookings virtual discussion: “The FY 2027 defense budget: How much is enough?” with Todd Harrison, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Mara Karlin, visiting fellow, Brookings; David Wessel, senior fellow and director, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Brookings; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow, and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-fy-2027-defense-budget-how-much-is-enough
WEDNESDAY | JULY 15
226 Dirksen — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Todd Blanche to be attorney general. http://judiciary.senate.gov
10 a.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee on China hearing; “Protecting American Innovation: The Federal Research Security Enterprise,” with testimony from Jeremy Ison, chief of staff to the undersecretary of energy for science; Patricia Valdez, chief extramural research integrity officer, National Institutes of Health; Rebecca Keiser, acting chief of staff and chief of research security policy and strategy, National Science Foundation https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaSelect/streams
TUESDAY | JULY 21
10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Navigating Strategic Competition: Senator Tammy Duckworth on the Future of U.S. Indo-Pacific Engagement,” with Victor Cha, president, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at CSIS; and Charles Edel, senior adviser and Australia Chair at CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/navigating-strategic-competition
4:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute virtual discussion: “Subversion and Seduction: A Conversation About China Economic Statecraft with Audrye Wong,” with Robert Doar, president, AEI; and Audrye Wong, AEI senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/subversion-and-seduction-a-conversation
