FALLUJAH OFFENSIVE UNDERWAY: Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi went on Iraqi TV last night to announce the start of operations to liberate Fallujah, which has been under Islamic State control for more than two years. Our sources say Iraqi forces have begun to strike targets in the city, but have not yet entered. One official tells us, “They have dropped leaflets to inform the civilian population that they should avoid ISIS areas and they should put white sheets on their roofs to mark their locations.” One reminder: when Iraq first announced the liberation of Ramadi last year, it was months before that city was eventually cleared of Islamic State fighters.
PRESIDENT OBAMA IS IN HANOI, where he has announced an end to the decades-long ban on the sale of military equipment to Vietnam, Daniel Chaitin reports. Why now? President Obama insisted it was all about ending a vestige of the Cold War, and not in response to China’s expansionist moves in the South China Sea. “It was based on our desire to complete what has been a lengthy process of moving towards normalization with Vietnam.” Arms sales would still have to be approved by Congress. Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain, a POW tortured during his five-and-half year stay in the notorious “Hanoi Hilton,” supports the move.
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While in Vietnam, the president confirmed the death of Taliban leader Akhtar Mohammad Mansour calling it an “important milestone” in ending the unrest in Afghanistan, Chaitin reports. As we noted when we first reported the strike Saturday, the president personally approved the attack in Pakistan because the U.S. military lacks the authority to conduct “offensive” strikes against the Taliban. Check out the picture of Mansour’s vehicle which was hit by missiles from several drones, and you’ll see why there little question the two men in the vehicle died.
GAME-CHANGER? Lots of speculation about what the death of Mullah Mansour means. Political leaders in Kabul including President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah have expressed hope that the death of the Taliban leader removes an obstacle to peace talks.
While in Washington, there is hope that the strike might also signal an end to the fiction that the U.S. is no longer at war with the Taliban. “I hope this strike against the Taliban’s top leader will lead the administration to reconsider its policy of prohibiting U.S. forces from targeting the Taliban,” said Sen. John McCain in a statement Saturday. “Our troops are in Afghanistan today for the same reason they deployed there in 2001 — to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for global terrorists. The Taliban remains allied with these terrorists.”
In this week’s magazine, we noted some of the administration’s “semantic backflips” when it comes to combat, and why agency spokesmen keep doing it.
STEP ONE: REMOVE GLOVES: Writing in the Wall Street Journal, retired Gen. David Petraeus and Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon argue it’s long past time to “take the gloves off” U.S. air power in Afghanistan, and stop pretending the Taliban is not the enemy. “Simply waging the Afghanistan air-power campaign with the vigor we are employing in Iraq and Syria … will very likely make much of the difference between some version of victory and defeat.”
EXPLODING DRONE MYTHS: You’ve no doubt heard the argument U.S. drone strikes are counterproductive, that they create more terrorists than they kill, because of high civilian death rates. A University of Oklahoma professor has published research challenging that conventional wisdom. “Broadly speaking, the interview data do not support the blowback thesis,” writes Aqil Shah in the Washington Post. “In sharp contrast to claims about the significant civilian death toll from drone strikes, 64 percent, including several living in villages close to strike locations, believed that drone strikes accurately targeted militants.”
HAPPENING THIS WEEK: The full Senate is expected to begin considering its draft of the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act this week. The draft includes a number of provisions, including one that would let the administration use money to analyze and plan possible options to bring Gitmo detainees to the U.S.
Analysts predict that Donald Trump’s stance on military spending could influence the fight expected this week in the Senate over funding in the defense bill, if anyone can figure out where Trump stands. McCain plans to introduce an amendment to the defense policy bill to add about $18 billion above the spending caps. It’s unclear if Democrats will support the plan without an equivalent bump in domestic spending.
“The chances of 10 to 15 Democrats voting for McCain’s amendment would be higher to the extent that Trump’s message is muddled or that he himself doesn’t necessarily endorse a higher level of defense spending. Then individual Democrats wouldn’t feel that they had to reinforce [Hillary Clinton’s] position,” O’Hanlon said.
NOT GOING ON TODAY: The hearing that was scheduled aboard the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower for this morning is still going on, but you won’t hear about it because Defense Secretary Ash Carter had concerns about media attending. Lawmakers are still down in Norfolk, and will present the findings from their trip in a public hearing this week.
ROTC RETURNS TO YALE: On Monday, Carter returns to his alma mater 40 years later to preside over a joint Navy and Air Force ROTC ceremony to commission the first group of seniors to graduate ROTC since it was restored to Yale’s New Haven campus in 2012. In the turbulent 1970s, in the wake of faculty protests and sometimes violent anti-war demonstrations, ROTC units were kicked off many Ivy League campuses as an expression of opposition to the Vietnam War.
BIDEN AT WEST POINT: Vice President Joe Biden, in his commencement address to the graduates of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, said presence of women and openly gay soldiers in the ranks strengthens the United States military. “Having men and women together in the battlefield is an incredible asset, particularly when they’re asked to lead teams in parts of the world with fundamentally different expectations and norms.”
SCAMMERS OR SCAPEGOATS? CBS’s 60 Minutes reports on the largest criminal investigation in the history of the United States Army, in which some recruiters scammed the system by claiming bonuses for bringing in recruits they had never met. Veteran Pentagon reporter David Martin examines claims from some soldiers that they did nothing illegal and are being made scapegoats for a recruiting program the Army admits was badly mismanaged from the start.
HOOP DREAMS: The Pentagon’s report on the Chinese militarization of reefs and artificial islands in the South China Sea details the massive construction projects on the various sea bases. But you really have to see the satellite photos to appreciate the scale of the effort. Time magazine has some of the best overhead imagery taken by DigitalGlobe. Among the photos: a satellite image of Mischief Reef captured on May 1, 2016, shows a running track, basketball courts and tennis courts.
A GRAVE INJUSTICE CORRECTED: Rep. Martha McSally’s legislation, the Women Airforce Service Pilots Arlington Inurnment Restoration (WASP AIR) Act has been signed into law by Obama. McSally says that caps a 20-week fight to restore the eligibility of women World War II pilots to be buried at Arlington National Cemetery.
GEN. VOTEL’S NEW STYLE: U.S. Central Command chief, Army Gen. Joseph Votel, has been touring Iraq and Syria, and he’s brought a number of reporters with him, including the AP’s Bob Burns, CNN’s Barbara Starr, and the Washington Post’s David Ignatius. Ignatius notes in his column that both Votel and anti-ISIS commander Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland are “more open to the media,” as they are “working harder to coalesce the elements of the U.S.-led coalition.”
THE RUNDOWN
Seapower: Liquid Robotics’ SHARC to Monitor ASW Sensors for U.S. Navy
US News: The Agony of Victory: Battlefield Successes Push ISIS Into a Different Deadly Role
Defense News: Interview: Lorraine Martin, Deputy Executive Vice President, Mission Systems and Training, Lockheed Martin
Military Times: Military Times to Donald Trump: Spend more time in listening mode
Politico: The Pentagon’s battle of the bands
Defense One: With Oil Revenue Down, Commercial Firms Eye Military Business
UPI: Airbus supplying helos for British military training
USNI News: Next Generation Destroyer Zumwalt Delivered
Military Times: What comes next for Obama’s unfinished mission in Afghanistan
Defense One: The Myth of American Disengagement
Military.com: US Talk with China about Jet Intercept Likely in Hawaii
Military Times: Threat from Russian and Chinese warplanes mounts
Marine Corps Times: Marine cyber warriors will mess with their enemies’ heads
Fox News: WW II battle flag unites granddaughter of US Marine and great-niece of Japanese soldier
Calendar
MONDAY | MAY 23
9:30 a.m. Naval Station Norfolk. Two subcommittees of the House Armed Services Committee will hold a closed hearing aboard the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower with four Navy captains on force structure and readiness. armedservices.house.gov
TUESDAY | MAY 24
8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., speaks about cybersecurity after information sharing. csis.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs will hold a hearing on the implementation and consequences of the Iran Nuclear Deal Oversight. foreignaffairs.house.gov
12:30 p.m. 1030 15th Street NW. The Atlantic Council think tank will host the 10th annual Country of Georgia Defense and Security Conference. atlanticcouncil.org
1:15 p.m. Tampa Convention Center. Gen. Raymond Thomas, commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, will speak at the Special Operations Forces Industry Conference. sofic.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade will hold a hearing on Terrorism and the Saudi Royal Family. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. House Oversight Committee on national security will hold a hearing on the remaining detainees at Guantanamo Bay. oversight.house.gov
2:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Stimson releases its new report on the long-term foreign policy and budgetary implications of the overseas contingency operations fund. stimson.org
WEDNESDAY | MAY 25
6 a.m. Live Stream. The Council on Foreign Relations discuss economics and financial instruments as new means of war. cfr.org
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. The Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Africa, the Pacific, and International Cyber Security will hold a hearing to discuss cybersecurity deterrence and global cyber norms. foreign.senate.gov
10 a.m. House homeland security committee will discuss the TSA airport experience amid Egyptair Flight 804’s speculated terrorist event. homeland.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Rayburn 2172. House foreign affairs subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa discuss Tunisia’s stability, security, and democracy. foreignaffairs.house.gov
THURSDAY | MAY 26
10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs will hold a hearing on protecting the U.S. from ISIS. hsgac.senate.gov
12 p.m. Rayburn 2172. House foreign affairs subcommittee on Africa, global health, global human rights, and international organizations discuss what’s next after the ISIS genocide declaration. foreignaffairs.house.gov
5 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Retired Adm. James Stavridis will speak about the future of NATO and U.S. alliances. heritage.org
6 p.m. Live Stream. The Council on Foreign Relations host Ray Takeyh and Steven Simon to discuss the U.S. involvement from 1945 to 1991 and shed light on today’s Middle East. cfr.org
