THE MOSUL MESS: The U.S.-backed Iraqi forces may be heading for a clear victory in Mosul, but it won’t be a clean one. It’s hard to imagine a messier battle, one that is exacting a terrible toll on the civilian population. As Iraq and and Kurdish forces advance, the desperate Islamic State fighters are resorting to more vicious tactics, including rounding up thousands of villagers at gunpoint to use a human shields as they retreat toward the city center.
Complicating the battlespace even more is word that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, known as the PMF or Popular Mobilization Forces, say they will begin moving toward Tal Afar west of Mosul, targeting an area close to Turkey with a sizeable ethnic Turkmen population. This underscores Turkey’s concern about Iranian-backed Shias trying to exert control of Sunni areas, in the name of helping defeat the Islamic State. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said this week Turkey will take unspecified measures if there is an attack on Tal Afar.
Meanwhile Turkey continues to attack Kurdish YPG forces in Syria it considers terrorists, the very same troops U.S. has lauded as the most effective fighting force battling the Islamic State. The most recent airstrikes against the YPG prompted Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain to condemn the Turkish attacks as destabilizing and troubling. “These Kurdish fighters have shown themselves to be willing and capable partners in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, and our continued cooperation serves the national security interests of both the United States and countries in the region, including Turkey. I urge the Turkish government to refrain from further attacks against Kurdish groups in Syria.”
At the Pentagon this morning, the chief U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, Air Force Col. John Dorrian, will provide an update on the Mosul operation, including the efforts to put out the sulphur fires ISIS has set, and the effort by the U.S.-led coalition to take out ISIS tunnels and fighting position from the air. Live streamed at www.defense.gov
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PAYING WITH THEIR LIVES: In any aircraft accident investigation there is usually a chain of events that leads to the mishap. Interrupt any of these events and the accident doesn’t happen. The tendency is to focus on the last mistake, what’s sometimes referred to derisively as a “blame the dead pilot” mindset. The crash of two Marine Corps CH-53 helicopters off the coast of Hawaii in January, which killed 12 Marines, is a case where the official finding is pilot error, but the mishap investigation details a litany of shortcomings that led up to the fatal mistake, including too many of the older helicopters out of service, leading to insufficient flying hours for the crews, resulting in poor morale, and failed inspections. You can read the entire report here, or the Marine Corps Times has a more readable wrap-up here.
In the wake of the release of the crash report, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry bluntly said that more troops will die unless Congress and the administration fix readiness shortfalls among all services. “If left unaddressed, they will invariably result in more tragic loss of life,” Thornberry said in a statement. “While this investigation reveals pilot error in the final seconds of this mission, it is clear that in the months, days, and hours beforehand, the department failed these Marines.”
Rep. Rob Wittman, who serves as chairman of the readiness subcommittee, urged Obama to stop the “political gamesmanship” over raising caps on domestic spending as well as defense. “Our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have always been willing to do more with less — that’s what makes them the greatest fighting force the world has ever known. But the fact is that there are human costs to ignoring our readiness shortfalls,” Wittman said in a statement.
HAPPENING TODAY: Several senior Defense Department leaders kick off the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ day-long conference on the third offset strategy. That strategy is essentially the Pentagon’s goal of continuing to compete with near-peer countries as the military force structure and technological superiority gap shrinks. For more details on what this jargony term actually means, American Enterprise Institute’s Mackenzie Eaglen has a good primer. Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Paul Selva start the day at 8 a.m., and Defense Secretary Ash Carter delivers the keynote at 9 a.m. You can watch live here.
FORMER GUARDSMAN PLEADS GUILTY: A former National Guard soldier from Northern Virginia pleaded guilty to attempting to provide material support and resources to the Islamic State, the Justice Department said Thursday. Anna Giaritelli has the story. Mohamed Jalloh, 26, of Sterling, Va., had acquired a weapon for a Fort Hood-style attack against the U.S. military. After hearing propaganda from al-Qaida member Anwar al-Awlaki, he chose to quit his Guard duties and join the terrorist group, prosecutors said. This year, Jalloh, a naturalized U.S. citizen who was born in Sierra Leone, traveled to Africa to join the Islamic State. He ultimately backed out of joining the terrorist group as a fighter in the Middle East and chose to become a domestic terrorist in the U.S.
RAYTHEON’S 3Q: Raytheon Company reports net sales for the third quarter of 2016 of $6 billion, up 4 percent compared to $5.8 billion in the third quarter of 2015. Operating cash flow for the third quarter 2016 was $600 million down from $1.1 billion a year ago. The missile-building company said the lower cash flow was due primarily to the timing of collections and payments, noting its year-to-date operating cash flow from continuing operations was $1.7 billion in 2016 compared to $1.5 billion for the same period last year.
NOT WAR CRIMES … YET: The State Department said Thursday that it’s not prepared to say formally that the Russians or Syrians are committing war crimes against Syrian citizens, even though Secretary of State John Kerry has called for an investigation, and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations says the attacks may be war crimes, Pete Kasperowicz writes. “It’s not up to the State Department to make a determination,” spokesman John Kirby said. “But as the secretary has said, he does believe that what’s going on is worthy of investigation by the international community. The determination of war crimes … it needs to be made by an appropriate judicial process, not by one cabinet agency just … making a definition of it.”
RUSSIAN BEAR IS WEAK BEAR, YES? Judging by recent remarks by Donald Trump and Mike Pence, you’d think Russia was challenging the United States to become at least an equal superpower, Daniel Allott writes. The GOP presidential nominee has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “very strong leader” with “strong control” over his country, and both he and running mate Pence say Putin has been a stronger leader for his country than Barack Obama has been for ours. But while Trump, Pence and some of their supporters portray Putin and the country he presides over as powerful, it is at its core very weak. Russia’s biggest problems involve a shrinking economy that can be blamed in part on declining oil prices, corruption and Western sanctions.
SECRETARY BIDEN? Vice President Joe Biden has indicated he will focus on promoting cancer research when he leaves office in January, but reports suggest Hillary Clinton may have other plans for the might-have-been president. Politico reported last night that Biden’s on the short list to be Secretary of State, should Clinton win next week. The question is would he want the thankless job, and would he use email?
FLOURNOY’S VISION: A former Obama Pentagon deputy seen as Clinton’s likely pick for defense secretary is backing a call for college-aged Americans to give two years of national service, either in the military or a domestic program like AmeriCorps, Paul Bedard writes. “I’m personally very supportive of creating more national service opportunities writ large, so that the primary or only path to services is not just the military but there are all kinds of ways to serve,” said Michele Flournoy, co-founder of the Center for a New American Security and undersecretary of defense for policy from 2009 to 2012.
PROBABLY NOT THE BEST LINE OF ATTACK: In a debate last night, Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., challenged Democrat Rep. Tammy Duckworth over her claim that her family has served in the military since the American Revolution. “My family has served this nation in uniform going back to the Revolution. I’m a daughter of the revolution. I’ve bled for this nation,” Duckworth said. Kirk responded: “I had forgotten that your parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington.” Awkward silence followed. Duckworth later tweeted: “My mom is an immigrant and my dad and his family have served this nation in uniform since the Revolution #ILSEN.”
FROM GOD’S LIPS TO HIS EARS: The firebrand president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, had an epiphany while on a flight home from Japan yesterday, when the voice heard from above was not from the captain on the flight deck. As Reuters reports it, Duterte recounted the divine intervention at a news conference after the plane landed: “I was looking at the skies while I was coming over here … everybody was asleep, snoring, but a voice said that, ‘you know, if you don’t stop epithets, I will bring this plane down now’. And I said, ‘who is this?’ So, of course, it’s God. OK.” As a result of his one-on-one with the almighty, Duterte says he’s swearing off swearing. “So, I promise God … not to express slang, cuss words and everything.”
ALMOST THERE: As of 7 a.m., the petition to the White House to override the Navy’s plan to do away with all of its enlisted job titles was about 800 names away from reaching 100,000. Once that threshold is reached, the White House has to respond.
THE RUNDOWN
NBC: U.S. Officials: Iran Supplying Weapons to Yemen’s Houthi Rebels
Military Times: Trump faces new round of military controversies just days before the election
Military.com: Montana House Race Contrast: Navy SEAL Vs. Longtime Educator
Breaking Defense: Spending Bill Delay Would Trip Up Nuclear Missile Sub: CR Vs. ORP
USNI News: Navy Wants More Complex Sub-on-Sub Warfare Training
Navy Times: The Navy needs more robot submarines for missions now
Defense One: The Marines Want Mini-Missiles That Hunt for Specific Radio Signals
UPI: U.S. Army to field-test wearable power-generation system in 2017
Breaking Defense: Army Rolls Out Upgunned Stryker: 30m Autocannon Vs. Russians
Air Force Times: Airmen resurrect Iraqi airfield wrecked by ISIS, in time for Mosul fight
Associated Press: Iraqis find bomb factory, tunnels on long road to Mosul
Reuters: Iraqi villagers celebrate freedom from Islamic State, but still haunted by terror
New York Times: Boko Haram Attacks Signal Resilience of ISIS and Its Branches
Associated Press: NATO allies advance plans for east Europe troop deployment
Wall Street Journal: Russia Flexes Military Muscle With Recent Deployments
Stars and Stripes: Philippines has much to lose militarily in a shift away from US
Military.com: National Guard Seeks Skills of Alaska Natives
Calendar
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28
8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva and others speak about the third offset strategy. Csis.org
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Air Force Col. John Dorrian, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve briefs live from Baghdad. www.defense.gov
MONDAY | OCTOBER 31
9 a.m. 1150 22nd St. NW. The 35th Conference on U.S.-Turkey relations begins, including sessions on how the new administration will approach its relationship with Turkey. atctaikconference.com
1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses the relationship among the U.S., Israel and Iran in the wake of the nuclear deal. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Brookings Institution hosts a panel on what nuclear arms choices the next president will face. brookings.edu
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 1
8:15 a.m. The Brookings Institution hosts its fourth and final podcast recording about preparing for the next president with a look at how the next administration should counter violent extremist. brookings.edu
10 a.m. Pacific. USS Midway Museum, San Diego. Rep. Scott Peters speaks at an event commemorating the beginning of National U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier month. www.aircraftcarrier.com
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 2
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Rear Adm. Christian Becker, the program executive officer for space systems, talks about the role of space in maritime operations. csis.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council hosts a discussion on what ISIS will become once it is militarily defeated. atlanticcouncil.org
5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Arnold Punaro launches his new book, On War and Politics: The Battlefield Inside Washington’s Beltway. csis.org
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 3
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts discusses the relationship between Russia and the West after the U.S. presidential election. atlanticcouncil.org
