President Donald Trump recently said that the war in Iran is “going very well.” The regime, he warned, was being “decimated.” It’s far too early to clearly see who, or what, will emerge from the war’s ashes. But history is clear: “Regime change” happens frequently in Iran, often driven by Iranians themselves, and often with foreign powers not far from the scene.

The objective of Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S. and Israel military campaign against Iran, is to destroy missiles, missile production, and security architecture, and to ensure that the regime “never has nuclear weapons.” The Trump administration, while calling for “unconditional surrender,” has left the door open on who will run Iran when those objectives are considered achieved.