SWALWELL COLLAPSE CREATES OPENING FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC ‘RESISTANCE’ LEADER

Swalwell gained prominence for reasons that had nothing to do with making a tangible difference in anyone’s lives. He spent a few years as a city councilman in a city of fewer than 50,000 people and over a decade as a backbencher among the House Democratic Caucus. But Swalwell, propped up by then-Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, was put on the House Intelligence Committee. This set him up to leverage that position to propagate the Russia-collusion myth, with Swalwell putting himself in front of every camera he could find to pander to the base that bought the lie.

This made Swalwell the most well-known Democrat in the field. Even if you are not a Californian, you are likely more familiar with Swalwell than with his former top competitors: former Rep. Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Health and Human Services Secretary and state Attorney General Xavier Becerra. Even if you recognize some or all of those names, you are probably more familiar with Swalwell, and you would certainly recognize him sooner than some of the other Democrats jockeying for position. (Bonus points if you can name the offices held by Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, or Betty Yee).

Swalwell chasing the national spotlight would not be a particularly bright strategy in a smaller state, where voters know the candidates better and expect them to have a little more on their resume than the number of times they stood in front of a CNN camera. But California has a population of nearly 40 million people, turning elections into more of a popularity contest than is typical. Combine that with how crowded the open primary field is, and the state’s primarily Democratic voting base is just looking for names they know, and Swalwell was the biggest beneficiary of that.

Katie Porter is living through a particularly hellish version of déjà vu, because this is exactly what happened to her when she ran for California’s open Senate seat in 2024. There, she ran into the only House Democrat who made even more of his national image contingent on promoting the Russia collusion hoax, Adam Schiff. Schiff doubled up Porter (and even beat her in the Los Angeles area, Porter’s home turf) in the primary and cruised to victory over a Republican opponent on the back of his non-stop interviews about Trump and Russia.

California is simply much too large of a state for its elections to be based on anything other than pure popularity. That is why Steyer is now the leading Democrat with Swalwell out of the race. Steyer has poured some $120 million into the state to get his name in front of voters, popping up in seemingly every commercial break on regular television and on YouTube. Steyer commercials have been a regular occurrence for Californians (including yours truly) for weeks now. Anecdotally speaking, I would guess there are about five Steyer commercials for every one from a competitor.

Part of the problem here is that there is no other incentive for California Democrats, thanks to the state’s politics. They know that a Democrat will win just about every race, so there is no need to actually have accomplished anything for constituents. Despite serving in Congress, you would be hard-pressed to find a real legislative achievement from Swalwell and Porter, whose reputations were built on media appearances. That is why someone like Steyer can swoop in and immediately compete for votes.

This is also why the California Democratic Party does not have much of a bench. There are no promising prospects coming up, because they have never had to be tested against the Republican Party over the past decade. Untested candidates are lazy, and that laziness is how your candidate quality gradually weakens from former Gov. Jerry Brown to Gov. Gavin Newsom to, now, whatever mediocrity emerges from this field.

You could argue that the state’s term limits are a contributing factor to this candidate quality decay. California state legislators are essentially limited to serving 12 years in Sacramento, regardless of which chamber they are in. The result is that the state legislature churns through politicians who are looking ahead to their future even as they are being sworn in. Once again, the priority is getting your name out there, not governing competently. After all, you won’t be around to answer for the effects of your policies one decade later.

One such example of this is Scott Wiener, the execrable state senator with a destructive track record when it comes to crime and gender issues, especially as they relate to children. Wiener has succeeded in making a name for himself, and he is preparing to make the jump from the term-limited state legislature to a limitless seat in Congress (where he aims to replace Nancy Pelosi). Wiener made this announcement by hyping himself as the next “Resistance” Democrat against Trump, who will be out of office by the end of Wiener’s first term.

You can see the playbook already: Wiener will go to Congress and stick his face in front of every CNN and MS NOW camera he can find, increasing his national profile so that he can enjoy a safe seat in Congress for however long he wants until he jumps into a bigger race, such as the governor’s election in 2034. This is exactly what Swalwell (and Porter) did, because it is the most incentivized path for Democratic politicians in California who seek a political future.

DEMOCRATS GOVERNED CALIFORNIA INTO THE GROUND. NOW THEY CAN’T FIELD A CANDIDATE

This strategy of using the state legislature to set up your future congressional (and statewide) campaign means that the state legislature is focused less on solving real problems (California’s housing crisis, affordability crisis, looming energy crisis, etc.) and more on pet projects, like Wiener’s attempts to turn the state into a “sanctuary” for “transgender” children. And, since the state’s Democratic voter base rewards Democrats with election wins regardless of what they do, politicians like Wiener prioritize the Democratic Party’s dumb cultural battles over basic quality of life issues.

That formula is how you end up with the top Democratic candidates being Swalwell, Steyer, and Porter. California Democrats cannot do better than this because the generation of politicians coming up has never been expected to solve any of California’s problems and never had to face any real opposition. They have been shown that exploiting lower offices for media hits and publicity to chase higher office is the easiest way to move through California politics. And that is how you end up with a failing state and a mediocre candidate pool.