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As the ceasefire with Iran heads into its second week, many seem to believe that President Donald Trump is simply trying to find a way to declare victory and end the war. It’s just a matter of time, this line of thinking goes, before Trump decides he cares more about the price of oil than ridding Iran of its revolutionary character and calls it a day.
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Don’t believe this. Trump remains resolute, as always, that Iran must at a minimum give up its decades-long dream of building nuclear weapons. So long as he remains dedicated to that goal, it is likelier that the war will flare up again than that the shooting is over.
Trump’s negotiating style remains remarkably constant. He always establishes his bottom line publicly, although not in such bald fashion that it doesn’t give him some wiggle room. He always seeks to gain leverage over his negotiating partner, something he possesses that the other side wants or cannot live without. He is always remarkably flexible on other aspects of the prospective deal, often switching secondary terms in public as he floats ideas to see if they would work. And he is always willing to walk away if a deal is not in the cards.
The recent talks with Iran continue to fit that pattern. The United States and Israel have significantly degraded Iran’s ability to resist further military action. The blockade on Iranian ports gives Trump leverage: he can prevent the oil-export-dependent nation from shipping any more of its crude to customers. Trump regularly states that Iran can neither have a nuclear weapon nor have the capability of pursuing one if it wants a peace deal. Bottom line and leverage, check and check.
His other statements show his flexibility at work. The latest thought to be aired involves giving Iran access to $20 billion of frozen assets if it cooperates with the U.S. in turning over its massive stock of enriched uranium. That, like his offer of massive investment in North Korea, which he offered dictator Kim Jong Un if he abandoned the hermit nation’s nuclear weapons, is meant to show his adversary that they can have significant benefits if they meet his bottom line. It, like the North Korean offer, will not be on the table, though, if it does not appear to tempt the Iranians to accept Trump’s conditions.
Trump is meanwhile using the ceasefire to further build up U.S. forces in the region. The aircraft carrier George W. Bush has been sailing to the area for weeks by going the long way around Africa. It recently turned the Cape of Good Hope and should be in the Arabian Sea within a few days. A second Marine Expeditionary Unit has also left Hawaii and is expected to be there by the end of April. Both moves give Trump further ability to attack and perhaps seize key Iranian positions that threaten navigation of the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. is also building up other capabilities. Many flights of heavy airlift planes were observed flying from the airbase near the 82d Airborne Division and landing in Saudi Arabia earlier in the month. That would be consistent with pre-positioning the equipment needed to launch an operation against Iran, perhaps using the division to seize the location from which 90% of Iranian oil is processed and shipped, Kharg Island.
None of this activity means that Trump will restart the war. These moves do, however, give him even greater firepower to do so should he choose. That in itself gives him greater leverage over the Iranians. They know, and could very well be told, that the next American attack will be even more devastating than the ones Iran has already endured.
Elite opinion, in the media and financial markets in particular, have always been against the war for a variety of reasons. Elite media has become even more polarized than previously and will back or oppose anything that strays from its preferred party lines. Financial markets want peace, stability, and growth more than anything else. They have long been leery of any of Trump’s deviations from pre-2016 orthodoxy, whether that takes the form of tariffs, immigration reductions, or taking the Iranian nuclear threat seriously.
IRAN’S HORMUZ BLOCKADE RESTARTED
These entities, therefore, have been actively trying to shape public opinion to push Trump towards their preferred outcome: ending the war as soon as possible. Trump at times has bent toward their direction, but it is noteworthy how much he has, often quietly, resisted their siren song. When he says he means the end the 47-year problem that the Iranian revolutionary regime has posed to America and its allies, Americans should probably take him literally as well as seriously.
Iranian leaders may decide to take the deal Trump is effectively offering them: end your revolutionary behavior and hand over the nuclear material you possess, and we will help you rebuild your country. Or they, being revolutionary fanatics, may not. If they choose the latter course, we should expect Trump to decide that the war will restart. Only this time, we should expect him to land a blow so powerful that even the Iranian regime could see the light.
