These analysts extrapolate their colleagues’ hacks or intercepts of private and foreign government financial data and communications, and reports on insights from spies inside foreign governments. They then assess the most accurate reality of a foreign economy and what its leadership is thinking and doing. Trump is known to revel in this economic intelligence reporting, fitting as it does his perception of diplomacy as an extension of business interchange. Trump has traditionally paid particular attention to economic reporting on China. Today, however, Iran is key.

Economic intelligence very likely guided Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade on vessels exporting oil from Iran. That blockade has remained in place even amid a more general U.S.-Iran ceasefire. And Trump is reveling in its effects.

Take Trump’s social media post late Tuesday. “Iran is collapsing financially!” he claimed. “They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately – Starving for cash! Losing 500 million dollars a day. Military and police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!”

This reference to security forces complaints is almost certainly a product of NSA intercepts of phone conversations. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Trump gave us another example of how intelligence reporting is shaping his strategy in a separate post a few hours earlier.

AMERICA’S NATO AND ISRAEL ALLIANCES ARE IMPERFECT, BUT IMPORTANT

Referencing peace talks with Iran that were scheduled for Tuesday in Pakistan, Trump posted, “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of [Pakistan], we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”

Why is this notable?

Well, because Trump plainly did not want this delay. He wanted the previously scheduled talks in Pakistan to produce a durable diplomatic agreement. Indeed, Trump told CNBC earlier on Tuesday that a ceasefire extension was “highly unlikely” if the talks didn’t go ahead. He added, “I expect to be bombing, because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with.”

So, what changed?

Well, note Trump’s reference to Iran’s government being “seriously fractured.” While factionalism in the Iranian regime is nothing new, reports suggest this dynamic has become more pronounced as Iran’s economy has come under increasing pressure due to the U.S. embargo. Hard-liners associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appear to be bickering with a more moderate faction led by President Masoud Pezeshkian. The different factions want to win supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s favor. The Pezeshkian faction wants an agreement that will end the war and exchange Iranian nuclear concessions for sanctions relief. The hard-liner faction wants to drag out negotiations and continue the war to extract bigger U.S. concessions down the road.

Trump appears to believe that the more moderate faction has the initiative. Again, that is likely due to what he knows about the war’s true impact on the Iranian economy.

We already know from open-source reporting that the Iranian economy is under immense pressure. Inflation and unemployment rates that were high prior to the war are now soaring. The regime will fear that, as this war drags on, the potential of mass uprising and civil war, enabled by security force defections, will only grow. In turn, and considering that Trump will know that his extension of the ceasefire risks making him look weak, the president likely has intelligence reporting that suggests Iran’s economic situation and the panic of its leaders are even worse than they appear.

It’s a safe bet that Trump has also received intelligence briefings indicating China’s serious concern over the war’s impact on its own economy. Consider how Beijing is ramping up the pressure on its Iranian partner.

In the Chinese readout of an April 16 call with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint. “It is a shared call of the international community to strive to restore normal navigation through the strait,” Wang argued. Chinese readouts value Chinese Communist Party signaling far more than they do objective accuracy.

Similarly, in a separate call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday, Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping observed that the strait “should maintain normal passage as this serves the common interests of regional countries and the international community.” China has also put major investments in Iran on pause.

THE LONG SAIL OF THE USS GERALD R. FORD

The signaling is clear. China is telling Iran to cut a deal and open the strait. And that if it fails to do so, Tehran risks its isolation from China in favor of its Islamic nemesis, Saudi Arabia. China knows what Iran also knows: If Iran loses China as its economic link to Saudi Arabia, it has a huge problem. Russia’s depletion in the war in Ukraine makes it a far weaker Iranian partner than it was five years ago. And again, American global espionage means that Trump will be aware of any Chinese pressure on Iran that has not been made public. It is virtually certain that the Xi-bin Salman and Wang-Araghchi phone calls were intercepted, analyzed, and transcribed by the NSA, for example.

Trump will ultimately decide how and when this conflict ends. But when it comes to the intelligence reporting most relevant to the president’s decision-making, it’s no longer military intelligence. It’s the economy, stupid.