In 2000, Al Gore ran after eight years as vice president under Bill Clinton. 

In 2024, Kamala Harris was installed as the Democratic nominee after four forgetful years under Joe Biden. 

In the modern era, vice presidents tend to run for president. Joe Biden did in 2020 after watching Barack Obama’s preferred 2016 nominee, Hillary Clinton, lose an election despite every conceivable advantage. Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter’s VP, ran four years after his boss got creamed by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election. Mondale would go on to win one state against the same opponent in 1984. 

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Outside of George H.W. Bush, no vice president since 1960 has won a presidential race after eight years of working under a two-term president. The name brand recognition may be there, as is the ability to fundraise and build a ground game. But as Nixon, Humphrey, Gore, and Harris can attest, that doesn’t always result in victory. 

Which brings us to the prospects of Vice President JD Vance. At just 44 by 2028, he would be the second-youngest party nominee in presidential history behind John F. Kennedy. Vance was the surprise pick of Donald Trump in July 2024, tapping the then-Ohio senator to be his running mate. Many pundits didn’t see the decision coming, with many (including me) convinced Marco Rubio or Glenn Youngkin would get the nod.

But Trump’s eldest sons, Don Jr. and Eric, pushed hard for Vance, making the argument that he was seen as more MAGA by younger males and could appeal to undecided voters in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, given his turbulent upbringing in the rust belt of Ohio and extraordinary successes that followed. 

Most polls show Vance leading relatively comfortably in hypothetical matchups against could-be contenders, including Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Don Jr. But Vance’s approval ratings, for whatever they’re worth, a full 20 months before the Iowa Caucuses, are currently at 62% disapproval, according to CNN’s latest polling. Trump’s numbers have also slid since the start of the Iran war, with gas prices increasing as a result, which has helped drag down his VP’s numbers in the process. 

“If Bill Clinton’s presidency is troubled, then Al Gore is going to be troubled,” the Wall Street Journal’s Paul Gigot wrote in 1997. “And if Bill Clinton has a wonderful second term, then it’s going to help Al Gore.”

But these polls are likely only a temporary snapshot in time. If and when the war is resolved, and gas prices come back down to 2025 levels or below, these numbers will surely flip. Regardless, there’s been more chatter lately regarding the prospects specifically of Rubio, who has arguably been the MVP of Trump’s Cabinet to this point of his second term. 

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The current resume certainly speaks for itself: secretary of state, acting national security adviser, acting archivist of the United States, and former acting head of the thankfully terminated USAID. 

“When I have a problem, I call up Marco,” Trump said of Rubio recently. “He gets it solved.”

A recent CPAC straw poll shows him with some real momentum, grabbing 35% of the vote. Context: Rubio stood at a mere 3% support one year earlier. In the same CPAC poll in March, Vance finished first at 53% support, but that was down 8 percentage points from the year prior. More context: JD’s 53% support is still higher than anyone in CPAC straw poll history of anyone not named Trump. 

In the end, it’s hard to see DeSantis jumping in to make another run at the presidency unless Trump specifically endorsed him, which isn’t going to happen despite the two mending fences after a bitter 2020 primary that Trump cruised through easily. As for Don Jr., he’s reportedly in talks to take his father’s chair in the boardroom on a reboot of The Apprentice on Netflix. The Trump name and brand certainly helps, sure, but it’s hard to see Trump Jr. run against Vance given he pushed so hard for him to be VP. 

For JD, a decision not to run for president in 2028 may be a personal (and quite understandable) one. The second lady, Usha Vance, is currently pregnant with their fourth child. His other children are still only 8, 5, and 3, respectively. A successful Vance candidacy and eight years in office would mean missing most of their childhoods, something you don’t get back as a parent. 

Vance could run for president in 2040 and still be in his mid-50s, or more than 30 years younger than Biden was when he left office last year. The runway is long. He could very easily serve in a number of Cabinet positions until then, or perhaps lead the RNC to help fundraise for the party while keeping a ubiquitous TV profile in the name of influence and relevance.  

To get a feel for the current sentiment around Vance or Rubio in 2028, I recently conducted two straw polls at speeches I gave in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Springfield, Illinois. The question was simple: If given the choice, who would you prefer to be the 2028 Republican nominee, Vance or Rubio? 

In West Palm, which has a bit of a hometown advantage given Rubio’s years as a congressman and senator in the state, the choice was overwhelmingly for Marco, at about an unofficial 80/20 split. In Springfield, a red-leaning capital in a blue state, the reaction was about 60/40 in favor of Rubio. And according to an NBC News report, Trump personally conducted a straw poll among 25 donors at a Mar-a-Lago dinner recently. The result? According to one attendee to NBC, “it was almost unanimous for Marco.”

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All of this said, there is no scenario that would pit Vance and Rubio against each other. Both men are too smart and have too much respect for each other to go down what would be a bruising road that the media would undoubtedly portray as a “MAGA Civil War” with little upside in the general. It will either be a Vance/Rubio ticket or a Rubio/fill-in-the-blank ticket. 

The betting markets also see a real upswing for Rubio lately. On Dec 31, Vance was favored to win the nomination with a 47.8% chance versus Rubio’s 10.9%. As of this May 1, Rubio has jumped to 24.6% to JD’s 37.4%. 

In the end, both men have a solid chance to win if the Iran War is resolved, gas prices fall, inflation falls, the border stays secure, the Save America Act is passed, and perhaps most importantly, Democrats continue to drive the party so far to the Hasan Piker/Graham Platner/AOC/Bernie socialist wing of the party that it alienates the kind of moderate swing voters they’ll need to win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. 

There are still more than 600 days until the first votes are cast in the Iowa Caucuses for the GOP. 

As we know in the Trump era, things can change on a dime. These aren’t the No-Drama-Obama years. 

The Republican Party has a good problem on its hands: two vastly qualified, intelligent alpha men with high name recognition and the ability to battle their opponents and a hostile media could be one of its nominees in 2028. Or they could form one of the strongest 1-2 punches not seen since Mantle and Maris. 

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As of now, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, or AOC could be their competition. That’s not exactly intimidating. 

But ultimately, this decision to run or not will be JD Vance’s choice. And it’s not hard to imagine him putting his young family first for a job he could very easily win years down the road.