As Republicans and Democrats battle in a tight race for the Senate majority, a handful of races that are set to determine the balance of power are tightening as Election Day nears.
Election forecasters have deemed the Senate a toss-up, leaving it up to just a few states to determine which party will gain control of the upper chamber in November. With less than two weeks until Election Day, party leaders are ramping up efforts to secure wins in some of the most consequential races of the midterm cycle.
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Here are some of the Senate races that are set to determine which party gains control of the Senate:
Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania Senate race between Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz has emerged as one of the most high-profile elections that is set to determine party control of the Senate in November.
Despite leading in the polls for much of the midterm cycle, Fetterman’s lead has dropped in recent weeks, giving him only a 2.3-point lead as of Wednesday. Democrats have grown more nervous about the race after the candidates’ first and only debate on Tuesday, in which Fetterman struggled through many of his answers due to an auditory processing disorder caused by a stroke he suffered in mid-May.
Recent polling shows Fetterman leading Oz 51% to 49%, according to the latest YouGov/CBS News poll from Oct. 21-24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Georgia
The Georgia race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Republican Herschel Walker is another highly consequential Senate election, with polling indicating the race may result in a runoff election that won’t be determined until December.
Recent polling shows Warnock leading Walker by 3 percentage points, with 46% saying they’d vote for the Democratic incumbent, compared to 43% who said the same for Walker, according to a recent poll from the University of Georgia and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. However, if neither candidate garners more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates are forced into a runoff election under Georgia law — something the Peach State experienced for both of its highly contentious Senate elections in 2020.
Ohio
The Ohio Senate race has attracted nationwide attention since Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) announced he would not seek reelection, giving Democrats a chance to pick up a seat in the contentious midterm cycle.
The race between Republican J.D. Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) has been in a statistical dead heat for much of the midterm cycle, with Vance holding a tight 1.7-point lead over Ryan, according to an average of all national polls. However, recent polling from Siena College showed the candidates in a tie, with both garnering 46% of the vote.
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Wisconsin
Democrats have also shifted their eyes to the Wisconsin Senate race, in which recent polling shows Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) with just a 1-point lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to a CNN poll.
Despite holding an advantage over his Republican opponent in late August, Barnes has since fallen behind Johnson in polling, with the incumbent holding a 3.4-point lead in an average of national polling. The race has been deemed a toss-up by election forecasters.
