Republicans picked up a victory in a heavily Hispanic Texas border city in yet another race that proves demographics are not the be-all and end-all in politics.
The border-town victory for the GOP is a rebuke to identity politics from Democrats and a refutation of those immigration restrictionists on the Right who promised immigration meant doom for Republicans. And it’s yet another sign that the future of the GOP is a working-class party.
Javier Villalobos, the former chairman of the Hidalgo County Republican Party, will be the next mayor in McAllen, Texas. Hidalgo County, which includes McAllen, has seen a steady shift toward the GOP: Sen. John Cornyn lost the county by 24 points in 2014 before cutting the gap to 15 points in 2020. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, whose district includes McAllen, escaped last November with a 3-point victory after winning his previous two elections by nearly 20 points.
McAllen is 85% Hispanic. Hidalgo County is 92% Hispanic. And Texas’s 15th Congressional District, which Gonzalez narrowly managed to keep in Democratic control, is over 81% Hispanic. The average pundit would assume those numbers alone indicate the GOP should be nowhere near competitive in this part of the country. And yet, here we are.
The GOP has come a long way in South Texas. Current Gov. Greg Abbott visited McAllen and the surrounding area multiple times in his first run for governor in 2014. He went on to lose Hidalgo County by 28 points. Democrats mocked him at the time for the effort, but Abbott crushed Democratic opponent Wendy Davis regardless. Republicans were not discouraged from continuing the outreach effort over the years. And now, they’re starting to see the payoff.
Last fall, Donald Trump massively overperformed in Val Verde and Zapata counties along the Rio Grande. With Villalobos’s win, there’s a pattern: It turns out Republicans can win Hispanic places when they actually try — and it doesn’t involve trying to out-woke the Left.
Republicans have made gains with Hispanic voters in Texas and Florida. They’ve made gains with black men in every presidential election cycle since 2008. All of those years of right-wing pundits warning that the “browning” of America would give Democrats a permanent majority were always destined to be wrong. Now, we’re seeing it.
Democrats are clearly worried as well. All of those years of dreaming about demographic inevitability, as if voting for Democrats was genetically tied to melanin. Nowhere was this delusion more apparent than the year-in, year-out prophecy of a “blue Texas,” in which Democrats and the media wistfully wondered if this time it would finally come true. As evidenced by the results in Texas last November and in McAllen now, the dream has crashed and burned once again.
Conservatism transcends race. This is obvious whenever Republicans actually try to compete in historically Democratic areas. While Democrats are digging their heels in on the notion that race is what defines Americans, Republicans can continue to pick up victories in areas like McAllen, as long as they’re willing to put in the effort.
