Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio need a last-minute charge to compete in Monday’s Iowa Republican Caucus. Recent precedent shows that Cruz could overtake Donald Trump to capture first place. Rubio would need an historic surge to win — but he could at least be in the mix by making up ground similar to what Rick Santorum accomplished in the last presidential election.
I’ve put together a few simple charts comparing the final RealClearPolitics average of polls in past Iowa Caucuses with the actual results on voting day. In 2008 and 2012, the eventual winner, both Democrat and Republican, outperformed their final polling average by at least five points. It’s worth noting that Cruz trails Trump by that exact margin in the famous Des-Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll, which is the final survey prior to caucus day.
