Andrew Roth points to Business Week‘s expert projection of key economic indicators for 2008. The consensus is for 2.1 percent growth on the year, with growth of 2 percent and 2.4 percent in the second and third quarters. To the extent that voters’ perceptions of the economy affect their votes in November, it will be the second and third quarters that define those views. Thus, despite the constant media harping on challenges to economic growth, the nation’s business leaders think we are likely to continue on much the same course that we have been on for years — one of steady growth. Of course, these projections could be wrong. They’ll almost certainly be off to some degree. Further, there are no guarantees that perceptions of the economy will match the macro numbers. That’s another reality that has been plain for years. Further, the Democratic candidate–whoever he or she is–seems likely to continue to try to convince the American people that the this country is on the edge of a major recession. Still, it is comforting to know that those who actually make a living at this are optimistic about where the nation is headed.
