President Joe Biden’s expected decision to identify Ottoman atrocities against Armenians as a genocide could trigger a new diplomatic crisis with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and worsen U.S.-Turkish disputes on a range of issues.

“Erdogan, who some refer to as a neo-Ottoman leader, is emotionally invested as much in the Ottoman Empire as he is in the Turkish republic,” said former Turkish opposition lawmaker Aykan Erdemir, who leads the Turkey program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “So for him, this is one red line very difficult to cross.”