Arizona spoiler talk brews as Green Party dropout still snags votes in close Senate race

“The Green Party continues to be a huge help to the Republican Party,” the New York Times’ David Leonhardt also tweeted, sharing an earlier vote count on Twitter.

Angela Green of the Green Party last week withdrew from the three-way contest to become the first woman to represent Arizona in the Senate, just days before the 2018 midterm elections were due to be held. Although she offered a tepid endorsement of Sinema, Green’s 11th-hour decision to bow out after ballots had been printed and early voting had begun meant Arizonans were still able to back her on Election Day, potentially siphoning off support for Sinema.

Also complicating matters, the Arizona Green Party put out a statement before the election saying it “disassociates” itself from Green’s comments. “Green does not speak for the AZGP. Her comments are her own. The AZGP does not endorse the candidates of the corporate ruling class,” the party said in a statement.

As of Thursday, Green had 2.2 percent of the vote, or 38,978 ballots, with 99 percent of precincts reporting. While those figures may not seem significant for a contender who spent less than $1,000 on her campaign, they represent more than the difference between McSally and Sinema. McSally, a Trump ally, is slightly ahead of her Democratic opponent.

Green, who prior to stepping aside was attracting about 6 percent of the vote according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, has denied that her run for the Senate, or subsequent withdrawal, has created a “spoiler effect” that Sinema now needs to overcome. She addressed criticism lobbed at her on social media.

“As I’ve always stated, please choose the candidate who best represents you. Although it’s not over, whoever wins, the PEOPLE of AZ have chosen. I know the Dems think all 3rd party voters would’ve chosen them, but I’m sorry to say that’s just not the case. Same goes for Reps,” Green wrote on Twitter.

“I hope voters will now take #RankedChoiceVoting into serious consideration. No 3rd party candidate should have to endure accusations of being ‘spoilers’ just because the ‘winner takes all’ two party system is severely broken. This is a complete travesty. It’s time for change,” she tweeted.

Republican consultant Kurt Davis told the Arizona Republic this week he agreed with Green, arguing that the “spoiler effect” was “an overblown theory.”

“Most of those voters would have either chosen not to vote for either and if they didn’t have that (Green Party) choice, they would have passed that race up on the ballot,” Davis said. “These are highly disaffected voters who don’t like either of the parties.”

Yet after Green’s Nov 1. announcement, Arizona’s state Republican Party reportedly sent mailers to likely Democratic voters tying Green to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in an apparent attempt to encourage protest votes against Sinema. Sinema, a former activist and member of the Green Party, has amassed a moderate voting record as a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, a conservative Democrat caucus, serving Arizona’s 9th Congressional District in the House.

Democratic consultant Lisa Fernandez told the Arizona Republic it was too early to judge Green’s impact on the crucial contest deciding the party makeup of the Senate.

“There are just so many votes that need to be counted, I don’t know that we can say for certain why a candidate lost,” Fernandez told the outlet.

Whether McSally or Sinema replaces retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake may not be determined for a couple more days. There are about 600,000 outstanding votes still to be tallied, according to the Associated Press on Thursday. Additionally, four county-level GOP parties have filed a lawsuit challenging how election officials count mail-in ballots.