The presidential race won’t be the only race with big implications for tax policy on Tuesday.
Business and tax experts will be closely watching several other elections for clues about the prospects for tax reform, action on the tax problems facing U.S. multinationals or other possibilities.
Here are some of the big races:
Pennsylvania Senate
Incumbent Pat Toomey is a member of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee with a reputation as a staunch fiscal conservative, one of the reasons that outside groups have made this the most expensive Senate race in the country, with more than $118 million spent on both sides.
Toomey, a former banker finishing his first term in a state that has trended blue, was formerly the president of the Club for Growth, a fiscally conservative group that advocates lower taxes and tax reform.
Toomey has the strong backing of conservative and business-aligned outside groups, such as the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and groups associated with the Koch Brothers.
Although Toomey is a top voice for fiscal conservatism, he has demonstrated a willingness to bargain with Democrats on matters of taxing spending. As a member of the “super committee” tasked with finding ways to cut deficits in 2011, Toomey proposed a legislative package that would have included some tax increases. The super committee ultimately failed to pass anything.
Ohio Senate
It now appears that Republican Rob Portman will easily defeat his Democratic challenge, former Gov. Ted Strickland.
If Portman runs away with the election as the polls suggest — he had a nearly 20 percentage point advantage in the RealClearPolitics average of polls Monday — it would be an indication of support for his pro-business agenda.
As a member of the Senate Finance Committee, the former Bush budget director and U.S. trade representative has been a top proponent of changing tax law to address the incentives for corporations to move their headquarters overseas.
Last year, Portman and New York Democrat Charles Schumer reached an agreement on a blueprint for reform of the way businesses’ international profits are taxed. The Obama White House wasn’t enthused, and Congress didn’t act on the recommendation. But Portman would be in a good position to negotiate with Schumer if, as expected, he becomes the Democratic leader in the Senate.
Illinois’ 10th District
Bob Dold, the incumbent Republican viewed as a pro-business moderate, faces a test in this battleground district in Chicago’s northern suburbs.
Tuesday’s election will hint at the viability of Dold’s brand of moderate Republicanism in the age of Trump: Dold backs comprehensive immigration reform, entitlement reform and international trade deals, all of which Trump has run against.
Dold’s approach is the one favored by business, and he has a 100 percent lifetime rating from the Chamber of Commerce. His race has become one of the most expensive in the country, with outside groups spending more than $8 million for and against him and his Democratic opponent, Brad Schneider.
Dold is a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, which is responsible for tax legislation. This fall, he succeeded in passing legislation signed by President Obama: A measure eliminating taxes on Olympic medals and winnings.
