If you went only by the media, you’d think that Rand Paul was a legitimate contender to win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Time magazine put him on its cover, calling him “The Most Interesting Man in Politics.” Politico magazine said –literally–the same thing. Top Obama aides agree. In fact, huge swaths of the media concur that Sen. Paul is “interesting.”

But it’s not clear why, as an electoral proposition, there’s anything interesting about him at all. Here are four reasons Paul is likely to underperform in 2016 and almost certainly won’t win the GOP nomination.