Four members of the Senate Armed Services Committee will be on the ballot in November, some in tight races that could see the committee’s membership, and priorities, shift.
In addition to Chairman Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the other three up for re-election are Sens. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Richard Blumenthal D-Conn.
McCain’s fate on Election Day likely has the most influence over the future of the committee, since he wields the committee’s gavel, sets its hearing schedule, and invites witnesses to testify. His race against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., is rated “likely R” by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. A RealClearPolitics average of the polls puts McCain ahead by more than 13 points.
Ultimately, not having McCain at the helm of the committee would not necessarily change the broad priorities of making sure the military is ready to meet the threats it faces, but could mean a significant shift in tone without McCain’s big personality and confrontations with the Pentagon, experts say.
If Republicans maintain control of the Senate, but McCain loses, Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., would be “the favorite” to take over as chairman, said Justin Johnson, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation. Inhofe has served as the committee’s ranking member when Democrats were in the majority and is still a senior member on the committee.
“He would certainly have at least a different style to Sen. McCain,” Johnson said. “He’d be more collaborative with the Pentagon, less of a headline driver perhaps. At the biggest level, there would still be similar priorities in terms of changing the budget trajectory, focusing on current conflicts and what we need to do to win them and conclude them successfully.”
Roger Zakheim, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said he thinks McCain will keep his seat. But even so, Democrats regaining control of the Senate means McCain could still lose his chairmanship.
In that case, Ranking Member Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., would likely take over as chair, according to Zakheim, who is also a partner at Covington and Burling.
Both analysts agreed that Reed’s leadership style would differ drastically from McCain’s.
“It would definitely be a dramatic change in style of committee leadership. McCain is just a uniquely powerful personality, whereas I think Sen. Reed is a little bit quieter, a little bit more deliberative in his approach to things,” Johnson said.
A leadership change would also mean a change in some priorities. Democrats and Republicans agree defense budgets need to increase, but McCain has pushed for higher military spending alone while Reed, and most Democrats, want nondefense spending increased to match any boost in defense funding. How the committee tackles the next budget could depend on which party is in charge, Zakheim said.
McCain has also placed a heavy emphasis on reform, including changing the acquisition system and the organizational structure of the military created thirty years ago by Goldwater-Nichols. But Johnson said that, while some reform efforts will likely continue under whoever is chair, it won’t be at the top of the priority list for whoever takes over next.
“I would expect the aggressiveness of them to ramp down under basically anyone other than McCain,” he said. “There’d still be reform efforts, whether acquisition or personnel, they’d still be in the mix just not quite as aggressively or as high a priority.”
Other members are also at risk. Whether Ayotte returns to the Senate is a toss-up, according to experts, and a RealClearPolitics average of polls puts the incumbent senator only 1.6 points ahead of Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.
Ayotte has been a vocal advocate on the committee for several key issues, such as keeping the detention center at Guantanamo Bay open and keeping the Air Force’s A-10s flying, despite efforts by the service to retire the planes.
The New Hampshire senator’s absence from the committee would be a loss “felt across the board,” but on the Gitmo fight, Johnson said he predicted other senators would jump in to keep pushing the issue. On the retirement of the A-10s, however, the loss of both McCain and Ayotte could allow the service an opening to begin taking the planes out of service.
“If you were to lose Sen. McCain and Ayotte, two of the strongest voices in the Senate on the A-10 issue, that could certainly put the issue back in play in the Senate next year if the Air Force were to propose retiring them once again,” Johnson said.
The Air Force has tried for several years to retire the A-10s, saying it needs to free up those resources to begin bringing the Lockheed Martin F-35 online. But lawmakers have prevented it because it is roundly considering the best aircraft for close-air support. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., and a former A-10 pilot, has been the most vocal ally of keeping the planes flying in the House.
McCain has also spent much energy criticizing performance and cost overruns of the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship program and the Gerald R. Ford-class of aircraft carriers.
Supporting Donald Trump has hurt both McCain and Ayotte in their re-election bids, but a leaked video of the GOP nominee making lewd remarks about women prompted both senators to revoke their endorsement of Trump.
“I’m a mom and an American first, and I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women,” Ayotte said in a statement.
It’s unclear how distancing themselves from Trump will impact the outcome of the election. Ayotte said she will write in the name of Trump’s vice president, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and McCain suggested on Tuesday that he would write in Sen. Lindsey Graham, another long-time Senate Armed Services Committee member and close friend of McCain.
If McCain and Ayotte do not return to Washington, it could open a space for new members to become more powerful players in terms of national defense, including two recently-elected members who are also veterans: Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.
“Ernst is probably the top contender for stepping up more into the spotlight,” Johnson said.
Two of the committee members up for reelection are almost certainly returning to Congress in 2017. Lee’s race in Utah is rated safely Republican and one poll has him leading his opponent by 30 points.
Blumenthal, the only Democrat on the committee up for reelection, is also likely to keep his seat. Both the Center for Politics and RealClearPolitics rate the race as safely Democratic with Blumenthal 21 points ahead of his opponent, according to one poll.
