The timely Supreme Court fight that was supposed to energize conservatives and save the Republican Party’s vulnerable congressional majorities was threatening to boomerang as fresh allegations of sexual misconduct imperiled the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.
The GOP base was warning Senate Republicans not to waver after a second female accuser surfaced late Sunday, suggesting they could sit out the midterm elections if the party folds to Democratic pressure to abandon President Trump’s embattled nominee. Committed Republican voters, viewing the allegations as scurrilous and politically motivated, see Kavanaugh as a proxy war for fighting the Left and the mainstream media.
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“If the Republican majority proves itself incapable of repealing Obamacare and incapable of confirming a Supreme Court justice, we will not only lose elections, we will deserve to lose elections,” a senior GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner, on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly.
Republicans rejoiced in June when Anthony Kennedy, for years a swing vote on the Supreme Court, announced he would retire. The court was a key component of Trump’s victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Republicans saw a confirmation debate ahead of what was shaping up as a brutal November as a way even the score and match the voter turnout of super-charged Democrats.
In the Senate, it was an insurance policy that would protect the Republicans’ razor-thin majority. The vote on Trump’s second pick for the Supreme Court could tilt the bench to the right for decades, and conservatives predicted it would flummox already vulnerable Democratic incumbents running for re-election in red states, forcing them to choose between the liberal base and their mostly conservative constituents.
But as the allegations have mounted against Kavanaugh just six weeks before Election Day, the political value of the Supreme Court as an issue for Republicans is steadily diminishing.
Conservatives were already frustrated with Republicans for delaying a vote in the Judiciary Committee to report Kavanaugh’s nomination to the floor for consideration by the full Senate in order to accommodate his first accuser, Christine Blasey Ford. As the second accuser, Deborah Ramirez, when public on Sunday, activists and influential conservative media figures were digging in, threatening consequences for Republicans if they caved.
“If they don’t power through to the floor, Republicans will be disgusted and turnout will plummet,” said a second Republican strategist, who is based in a red state that voted for Trump in large numbers two years ago. “This is a dirty tricks hit job, everyone knows it, and the collaboration of media and senate Democrats to stop this thing has really galvanized Republicans.”
Gregg Keller, a conservative operative in Missouri, said the politics of Kavanaugh have not materially changed for Republicans since last week, prior to Ramirez’s allegations, when he told the Washington Examiner that failing to muster the votes to confirm Kavanaugh could be disastrous. In Missouri, a red state, Republicans are targeting Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, who has announced her opposition to Kavanaugh.
“The Democrat Party has now gone completely insane,” Keller said. “Their brazen shamelessness in defense of abortion on demand knows no bounds; no Republican needs pay them any mind on this matter. Republicans should just hold the vote.”
Kavanaugh, a 53-year-old federal appellate court judge, has seen his personal reputation, and support for his confirmation, tank in public opinion polling. This has eased pressure on red state Democrats and elevated the danger for the Republicans, already dealing with a revolt among female voters who might interpret their dogged backing of Kavanaugh as a lack of sensitivity to victims of sexual misconduct.
The matter also jeopardizes party unity.
Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., were defending Kavanaugh and urging the Judiciary Committee to vote this week, saying the accusations and the Democrats’ reaction were laced with politics. The goal isn’t the truth, they and other Republicans say, but to delay confirmation past the election so that Democrats might win the Senate and block Trump from appointing a conservative to the bench.
But Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, two Republican centrists, plus outgoing Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz. a bitter opponent of the president’s, could form a bloc large enough to derail Kavanaugh. It’s possible the Republican base would forgive the party, and turn out in force on Nov. 6 to expand the Senate majority and dilute the power of the centrists and the Trump critics.
Or, they might not.
“If the Republican Senate Won’t Stand Up to the Mob, What Good Are They?” Erick Erickson, a conservative radio talk show host, said in a Monday morning Twitter post.
