The Republican Race

Romney’s a Mormon? I had no idea!

Come on. Answer the question.

First of all, it wasn’t “push polling.” A push poll on this subject would have gone something like, “Did you know Mitt Romney was a Mormon? Thank you, and have a nice night.” These were serious 20 minute conversations, carefully probing for the chink(s) in Romney’s Mormon armor.

But everyone says their push-polls. What gives?

To quote the all-knowing Larry Sabato on push polls, push polling “can be devastating if it’s done widely–it’s worked in plenty of campaigns.” In this case, only a few hundred homes were called. Some campaign or media outlet or 527 was looking for Romney’s vulnerabilities regarding his faith, not looking to hammer Romney by informing the immediate world (or at least the part of it that lives in Iowa and New Hampshire) that he’s a Mormon.

Does that make what happened here more or less offensive?

I report, you decide.

Why did so many people rush to conclude that Romney had conducted a black-op on himself?

I really don’t know. If you’ll pardon me for a moment of self-congratulation, the first thing I did when I got wind of the story was call Western WATS, the suddenly famous poll implementer, to get their version of things. I spoke with their CSO, Jeffrey Welch, for about fifteen minutes. Although he wouldn’t give me anything specific regarding this particular poll, I did learn who the company implements polling strategies for (everyone) and what they study (everything). It became immediately apparent that people who were blaming Romney for push polling himself were likely barking up the wrong tree. Welch’s insistence that Western WATS doesn’t do push polling was pretty convincing.

But how about the fact that a few Western WATS employees (including Welch) gave to Romney’s campaign?

A few employees of a large Utah company contributed to the Romney campaign? No way!

One of the reasons this episode leaves a particularly sour taste is because of the half-baked, emotional reporting that accompanied it. Suspecting a dark conspiracy is one thing. We all love it when a Robert Ludlum novel springs to life. But publishing those theories, especially when you don’t bother to inform those theories with all the available facts, is quite another matter.

So who was behind the polls?

I have no idea.

What’s the takeaway from all of this?

Romney has a Mormon issue. That’s no secret. My friend Hugh Hewitt wrote a book on the subject, a book that I edited. When Romney’s campaign goes national, his faith will be part of the conversation.

I also have to add that the meanness of this operation doesn’t stun me. Remember 2004, when John Edwards saluted Dick Cheney for raising such a fine lesbian daughter? That moment was likely the product of polling. The Democrats learned that Dick Cheney having a lesbian daughter wouldn’t be a good thing for the Republican ticket. Edwards squeezed this irrelevant nugget into the debate so smoothly, people could only speculate whether or not it was a slam. John Kerry removed all doubt a week later by bringing Cheney’s daughter up in the next presidential debate, in his characteristically maladroit manner.

In other words, the poll last week was nothing new.

Does the kind of negative advertising that this poll was apparently paving the way for actually work?

That’s what the poll was all about–seeing how much damage could be done to Romney on the Mormon issue. Generally speaking, negative advertising works. That’s why politicians do it.

Okay, on to the race in general. Where do the Republicans stand?

I’ll take my guy first–Romney’s where he wants to be. If he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll be tough to beat and he has good leads in both states.

What about the argument that he’s a favorite son in New Hampshire, just like Paul Tsongas was in 1992, and thus the true victor there may be the silver medalist, just like “Comeback Kid” Bill Clinton?

’92 was a weird year because there was no Iowa. All the Democrats conceded Iowa to native son Tom Harkin and didn’t campaign there. This year, the short time between Iowa and New Hampshire means Iowa will be particularly important. Obviously something could derail the Iowa winner in the five days between the two elections, but that’s unlikely.

What about Huckabee? He’s been having a good run lately.

As the man who coined the term “Huck-a-mania” a few weeks ago, I feel some pride over this. He’s a very appealing candidate.

Do you think he can build on his momentum and win Iowa?

Prediction time, eh? Fine, I’ll play. No, he won’t win Iowa. Our wise Cardinal at the Campaign Standard points to some inherent weaknesses in the Huckabee campaign: “Raising taxes as governor, Darwin the faker, last name sounds like village idiot character in a Faulkner story.”

I’ll add another one to the Cardinal’s list: Huckabee is perceived as the lightweight in the race. He has to seize on his momentum to show he’s got the gravitas to go the distance. Instead, he’s running commercials with Chuck Norris. I liked the commercial well enough; I just don’t think it’s what he needs at this stage of the game. He’s now a serious contender, and has to act the part.

What about McCain?

McCain has a glass ceiling on his numbers because of all the Republicans he’s alienated over the past seven years. Even if he pulls the rabbit out of the hat in New Hampshire, he’s not going to win.

Thompson?

I think everyone’s writing Fred off prematurely.

Wait a minute! How about that poll that shows him at only 4 percent in New Hampshire?

Obviously it’s not great news, but it was a small sample–only 404 voters. Fred will still get a second look in Iowa, and everyone else’s support is less than firm. He had a great interview on Pajamas Media talking about the war on terror. (By the way, props to the kids at PJM for excellent production values.)

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I’m not saying Fred is going to win, just that he still has a shot. John Kerry wasn’t exactly setting the political world on fire at this point in the ’04 race.

What about Rudy?

Rudy has to exceed expectations in at least one of the early states. On the one hand, that should be do-able since expectations are so low. On the other hand, he’s really been stuck in the mud in all the early states, and the more some conservatives learn about him, the less they’ll like.

One additional word about those expectations, something that’s potentially problematic for Rudy: Right now, he’s viewed as the frontrunner. The people who observe politics passively may well be stunned if he fails to finish in the money in the first two states. That happenstance may mortally wound him.

What a shameless Romney shill you are! Add it all up, you’re saying Romney’s the only guy with a shot.

I wouldn’t go that far. But I would wager that all of the other campaigns wouldn’t mind trading places with him.

You haven’t even mentioned Ron Paul!

I know.

Dean Barnett is a staff writer at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.