Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead Democrat Joe Sestak by 4 points in Pennsylvania, according to the latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters. I’ve written that the gap in the Pennsylvania Senate race is likely bigger than that which has been indicated by three recent polls, each of which appears to have under-sampled Republicans and/or independents. In that vein, the Rasmussen poll gives with the one hand and takes with the other.  On the one hand, it supports the contention that the race likely isn’t as tight as the other three polls (the average of which has called the race a tie) have suggested.  On the other hand, it does clearly show the race tightening.  

Rasmussen shows Toomey’s lead shrinking from a 10-point advantage nine days ago to a 4-point advantage now, for two principal reasons:  Previously undecided Democrats have, unsurprisingly, come home to Sestak.  (Sestak’s lead among Democrats was 72 to 14 percent in the earlier poll; it’s now 80 to 14 percent.)  And Toomey’s colossal (62 to 15 percent) lead among independents has become merely a very big lead (50 to 29 percent).