In the summer months of 2020, an embittered Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was on the brink of losing his power amid massive domestic protests and Western sanctions. Then the Kremlin came to the rescue.

Now Lukashenko is returning the favor by allowing his country to be a staging ground for Russia’s military foray into Ukraine — a move that has drawn a new wave of crippling sanctions and could reignite internal divisions that could plant the seeds for his political demise.