Growth trumps decline. That’s what President Trump is gambling on to hand him victory if the trade skirmish morphs into a trade war. The U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of 4.1 percent and continues to create jobs. According to yesterday’s jobs report, the economy added 157,000 new jobs in June. That was a bit below expectations, but any shortfall was offset by upward revision of the April and May figures, which brought average job creation in the first six months to 224,000. Two possibilities: the slightly restrained hiring last month was due to the fact that there are so few workers available to hire, or employers are delaying expansion until the outcome of the tariff imbroglio becomes clear.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.9 percent, and the manufacturing sector added 300,000 jobs in the past 12 months. On the corporate side, profits remain satisfactory to all save the very greedy. They rose around 24 percent in the second quarter, the second largest increase since 2010. “We are the economic envy of the world,” boasts the president, abandoning his usual preference for understatement.