The Limits of Prosperity?

Published July 21, 2018 9:05am ET



Lots of good news last week. “The economy is as good as it’s ever been, ever. . . . People can’t believe what’s happening,” says President Trump, abandoning his usual preference for understatement. Economic growth “may be 4 percent for a quarter or two” Larry Kudlow, the president’s economic advisor, announced. CNBC analyst Jim Cramer told the cable network’s viewers, “This is what a boom looks like.” Manufacturing “activity right now is hitting on all cylinders. Demand is up, production is up,” says Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers.

Federal Reserve Board chairman Jay Powell used only slightly less enthusiastic language in his reports to Congress this week. “The job market has continued to strengthen . . . the U.S. economy has grown at a solid pace . . . rising after-tax incomes . . . optimism among households . . . investment by businesses has continued to grow at a healthy rate . . . financial conditions remain favourable to growth.” As former Fed governor Larry Lindsey summarized it, “This is Goldilocks.”

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