Tuesday’s special city council election is the D.C. Republican Party’s last best hope to be taken seriously in local politics. Let me be clear: If Patrick Mara loses, we can write off the D.C. GOP as a bunch of aging white folks who meet and talk and complain but cannot get anyone elected. “This is one of our best opportunities to pick up a seat in a very long time,” offers Paul Craney, executive director of the local GOP. “The climate is good for Republicans in D.C.”
For all 25 of them.
Most Washingtonians who pay any attention to local politics have already written off the Republicans. We live in the most blue city in the country. There are at least eight Democrats registered in the District to every Republican.
But I agree with Craney. The political climate has brought us the perfect storm to elect a Republican. Will it be a momentary squall or a sustained change in weather?
Republicans will answer that today: If they show up and vote for Patrick Mara, he can win; if they can’t be bothered and ignore the race, it will be blue skies forever for the Democrats.
A series of unique weather patterns have created this perfect storm:
» Kwame Brown traded his at-large seat for the chairmanship. Brown’s chosen successor, Sekou Biddle, failed to lock down the seat while he served in a temporary capacity.
» Six Democrats in a field of nine will slice up the blue vote, which provides a rare opening for another party lined up behind a single candidate.
» Current Democrats in office — Mayor Vince Gray and various council members — have sickened voters with the stench of rotten ethics and potential corruption.
» Few voters are expected to show. They will not be casting ballots for a president or a mayor or a slate of council members. Vote counters figure 15,000 people can provide a victory margin.
“This ain’t rocket science,” one lobbyist with his fingers deep into the race told me. “It’s just arithmetic.”
Mara and the local party are trying to reach voters one by one. Mara’s right hand is cramped from signing so many personal notes to likely voters. Every night volunteers gather at the Republican National Committee headquarters to use the national party’s sophisticated phone system to personally urge members to vote.
Will they?
Carol Schwartz was the only Republican to consistently win a council seat citywide. But “Carol,” as her signs said, was one of a kind: brash, charismatic, lovable and largely Democratic. She won because Dems voted for her; she lost because she crossed the business community, who backed Mara to knock her off in 2008.
Patrick Mara is no Carol, but he is passionate, and he has paid his dues. He won a seat on the board of education. He has worked hard to win votes. He could be the fiscal and ethical watchdog the city needs.
But if Republicans don’t show up, this moment will be lost — for decades, perhaps forever.
Harry Jaffe’s column appears on Tuesday and Friday. He can be contacted at [email protected].
