Is There a Dr. Hayworth in the House?

But on the ground, it’s a different story. Democrats and independent observers are saying the race will be a tight one, and with good reason. Hayworth has a few factors working in her favor: Obama’s approval rating stands at 38 percent, low turnout is expected with no exciting top-of-the-ticket state races, and Hayworth has as much Congressional experience and name recognition as Maloney.

While the sole public poll conducted this election season — a mid-September Siena poll — has Maloney up by eight points (50 to 42 percent), few if any think the split is that wide. Earlier this week, Hayworth’s campaign released an internal poll showing her behind by only four points, 43 to 39 percent, within the poll’s margin of error.

Also, in a non-scientific survey released earlier this week, Siena requestioned 253 of the 590 likely voters it polled in September. This “sample of a sample” gives Hayworth a whopping an 11-point lead — 52 to 41 percent.

Siena College pollster Don Levy is quoted by Hayworth’s campaign saying, “it’s safe to say this is going to be a nail-biter.”

Back in 2012, Hayworth led Maloney by 7 points (49-42 percent) in a mid-October Siena poll, but she still lost 48.7 to 45 percent in a district Obama carried 51.4 to 47.1 percent.

In a race this volatile, Democrats are certainly not underestimating Hayworth’s chances. Just last week, the DCCC devoted an additional $180,000 to run ads up until the election in the New York City media market — the most expensive market in the country.

With Obama’s dismal approval ratings in the Empire State, Sean Maloney is taking a cue from Alison Lundergan Grimes and hitching his wagon to Bill Clinton’s star. A former Clinton adviser, Maloney calls himself a “Bill Clinton Democrat” every chance he gets. He only mentions the current administration when distancing himself from it, touting his “independent” and “centrist” views.

David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, gives Maloney a slight edge at the moment. The district has been a “ping pong ball” though, flipping three times since 2006, he notes.

Hayworth, 54, was elected in 2010 to the 19th Congressional District as part of the GOP wave, defeating Democratic incumbent John Hall. New York state actually sent the most new Republicans to Congress that year.

The redrawn map after the census gave the new 18th Congressional District about three-quarters of the old 19th district. Maloney, 48, defeated Hayworth in 2012 in the new district.

On a national scale, Maloney’s name is most recently associated with his wedding, which generated headlines this summer for its drone video footage. Currently the FAA bans commercial drone use, and Maloney sits on the subcommittee that oversees the FAA.

Nancy Pelosi was at his wedding, a fact that Nan Hayworth mentioned at their first debate as she reminded voters of the “Pelosi-Obama-Maloney agenda” they’d face if he was reelected.

In the debate last week at Middletown High School, Maloney came across as a polished politician. He emulated Bill Clinton, perhaps not as charming and a bit more supercilious, but still very slick. Hayworth was passionate and fiery, hammering home her message against Washington bureaucracy and government overreach.

Both were well-versed in local issues like infrastructure and transportation projects, though they disagreed over who deserved credit for procuring various grants and funds.  Maloney boasted of three bills he’s had signed in to law for farms, veterans, and dams.

On two hot button issues, they’re in agreement — both favor comprehensive immigration reform and suspending and reevaluating Common Core. Hayworth also supports fracking in New York.

As in most elections, the economy is front and center. “The top three issues are always the same — jobs, jobs, and jobs,” Maloney told me after the debate. “We’re not going to stop until we have good jobs and good wages.”

New York has seen companies downsize and residents leave in recent years. The state lost two House seats following the 2010 census. Major corporations like IBM have shed jobs in the district. The region’s numerous hospitals and healthcare companies, which comprise a significant chunk of the local economy, have felt the effects of Obamacare.

Maloney and the DCCC have tried to paint Hayworth as a “tea party millionaire radical,” though Hayworth is generally a moderate Republican. She supports over-the-counter birth control and stands by her state’s decision to legalize gay marriage.

When asked where she fell on the conservative spectrum, she simply said, “I’m Nan.” Chatting at a diner in the city of Newburgh, she focused squarely on fiscal issues. “I’m definitely here to lighten the burdens that Washington throws at us in terms of taxes and mandates and regulations, ” she told me. While she wasn’t working the crowd that day, one of the diner’s patrons recognized her and voiced his support.

Hayworth, an ophthalmologist, is playing up her background in medicine and tying Maloney to Obamacare. Maloney was not in Congress to vote for Obamacare, and he has said it needs improvements. But the House Majority PAC is running an ad saying she denied health insurance to people with pre-existing conditions and stripped women of cancer screenings by citing her votes against Obamacare.

Hayworth’s plan to replace Obamacare includes health savings accounts, tort reform, and funding for high-risk state pools.

The 18th Congressional District is as centrist as one can get: The Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index rates it as just one of nine “even” districts across the nation. Largely a commuter area for New York City, it encompasses Orange County, Putnam County, and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties.

“This is a truly, truly competitive purple district,” says former Orange County Democratic chairman Jonathan Jacobson, who predicts the race will be very close. Orange County, where about half of the district’s residents live, is the primary battleground. Its bucolic landscape comes alive this time of year as the crisp autumn colors pop and urbanites visit for apple picking season.

Aside from city dwellers, the county has been bombarded with yard signs, ads, mailers, and door knockers. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a few thousand, but more than a quarter of all registered voters are unaffiliated or with the Independence party in Orange County. Three in ten voters fit this description district-wide.

Unlike 2012, Hayworth will run on the Independence party line, which will give her a boost that could make a significant difference. She got on the line after she beat Maloney in the party primary. She will also be on the Conservative and Republican party lines, and Maloney will be on the Democratic and Working Families lines. In an interesting twist, Hayworth will share the Independence party line with the state’s Democratic incumbent governor, Andrew Cuomo.  

In New York, the Independence party is a decentralized entity whose influence and political leanings vary throughout the state. But many people who consider themselves independents register for the party, sometimes mistakenly, instead of registering as unaffiliated voters.

While conventional wisdom would dictate that a candidate shouldn’t run again after losing, Marist political science professor Martin Shaffer thinks it is a wise move for the party in this case.

“If Republicans wanted the perfect candidate for the district, they have one that’s pretty good because she was the Congressperson and she was well known,” he said.

Shaffer, dean of the college’s School of Liberal Arts, gives Hayworth a slim advantage, citing a motivated base and strong anti-Obama sentiments.

Maloney has to overcome more than just a general enthusiasm gap that Democrats are seeing in national polls. In New York, there are no Senate races this fall and Cuomo all but has his race sewn up. This will keep turnout even lower than the average mid-term election.

A third candidate in the House race, Scott Smith, is running as an unaffiliated candidate. Hayworth’s internal poll gave him two percent, and he wasn’t included in the Siena poll.

At the end of September, Hayworth had raised about $2.1 million to Maloney’s $3.6 million. While the DCCC and Nancy Pelosi’s House Majority PAC have poured a combined $900,000 into the race so far, the NRCC has yet to pitch in. The only national player backing Hayworth has been the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, spending $300,000 and releasing an ad linking Maloney with Pelosi.

Hayworth’s poll memo from Public Opinion Strategies concludes:

Perhaps it’s a last-ditch attempt to get the NRCC’s attention, but it certainly can’t hurt.

Maloney’s campaign won’t comment on their internal poll numbers. They don’t have to; they’re clearly not taking anything for granted. In a race this tight, that is a luxury Maloney and national Democrats know they can’t afford.