According to this piece in The Atlantic, Virginia will be a “test” of the strength of the coalition of voters who elected Barack Obama in 2008 and saw the commonwealth go for the Democratic ticket for the first time since 1964.  But behind the article’s demographic analyses is a key point that isn’t explored: the president’s fate in Virginia in 2012 will depend a great deal on former Gov. Tim Kaine, who is weighing a U.S. Senate bid.

The article’s author, Josh Kraushaar, frames the President’s Virginia prospects this way: