We should “stop thinking about the economy as being in a perpetual crisis” commented Charles Plosser, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, after the government announced on Friday that the private sector added 267,000 jobs in January, and that upward revisions to November and December data brought total job creation in 2014 to over three million. Wages are moving up faster than inflation, prompting some observers to back off predictions that Fed chair Janet Yellen would delay raising interest rates beyond June. I am not so sure. Janet Yellen just might argue that the increase in pay was due to the decision of many states to raise their minimum wages rather than to an overly tightening labor market, and that 703,000 workers re-entered the work force, suggesting that the reserve army of the unemployed is too large, and at least large enough to provide workers to meet demands without triggering inflation-inducing wage increases.

So far, the uplift lower gasoline prices is providing to other sectors — most especially autos and retailing — seems to be more than offsetting job losses in the oil and related industries. That is not to minimize the devastating effect of the 60% drop in oil prices. In North Dakota, the second largest oil-producing state after Texas and the heart of fracking country, almost 25% of the drilling rigs in operation at this time last year are now idle, and the total number of rigs working in America is at its lowest level in three years. Layoffs are not confined to smaller, debt-laden fracking operations. ConocoPhillips, BP and Shell have warned their employees to expect staff reductions, while industry suppliers from Schlumberger and Halliburton to small shops that supply beer and sandwiches to oil-field roustabouts and posh restaurants in Houston that cater to oil industry executives are paring staffs. One such eatery is tying the prices on its upscale menu to the daily price of oil.