Obama’s Cuban strategy will fail

President Obama has started the slow process toward reconciliation with Cuba. At the recent Summit of the Americas, he announced that travel restrictions – plus the ability to send remittances to family members – had been lifted for all Cuban-Americans. He also enabled U.S. telecommunications firms to seek potential business opportunities on the island.

 

Obama’s announcement was praised in many quarters.  There’s some optimism that the president’s gestures will motivate Cuba to ultimately embrace capitalism and the free market.  In time, it could even become a strategic ally.

 

That optimism, however, is pure fantasy at this conjecture.

 

Until Cuba truly embraces democracy, real political and economic change is unlikely to ever occur.  And I believe Obama’s strategy has actually aided Cuban President Raúl Castro’s mission to retain political power and preserve communist rule in his homeland.

 

For more than a half century, the U.S. was in control of its destiny with respect to Cuba.  The island has been isolated from the U.S. since Raúl’s brother, Fidel, established diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union in 1959.

 

As well, American foreign policy concerning Cuba, from Dwight D. Eisenhower to George W. Bush, ranged from regime change to demanding political and economic reform.

 

Meanwhile, the Castro brothers have had to deal with a U.S. trade embargo that has crippled their economy and weakened their society.  Plus, a growing number of Cuban-Americans – and many young Cubans born after the revolution – have grown tired of communism and isolation from the western world.

 

Yet in one stunning maneuver, the U.S. lost its advantage.  The Obama White House made unnecessary concessions with Cuba before achieving the primary objectives that previous administrations had fought for tooth and nail.  And Mr. Castro, having achieved a moral victory against the U.S. while still preserving his brother’s political legacy, will likely see a surge in his popularity.   

 

But what about Obama’s support of a free enterprise system in communist Cuba, some of you might say.  Wouldn’t that lead to real change?

 

Not necessarily.  Communist and socialist parties have wisely learned over time to accept some capitalist principles.  Yet they still don’t accept the fact that their countries should also move towards liberal democratic values.

 

Take China, for example.  The country’s communist leaders have successfully mixed their authoritarian political views with a market-based economy.  The Chinese are allowed to start their own businesses, earn profits, generate wealth and field new financial opportunities across the globe.

 

That’s great.  But do you ever hear talk about moving toward free elections in China, or supporting human rights, or promoting individual rights and freedoms?  Of course not – and it’s unlikely you will for a very long time, if ever.

 

China has become an economic superpower with the absence of real democracy and real freedom.  If a communist country can succeed in this fashion, other communist countries will eagerly follow this model.

 

For the Cuban hierarchy, this will especially be the best of both worlds. 

 

Thanks to the Obama White House, foreign companies will be encouraged to gradually invest in Cuba, creating more jobs and available goods and services.  In the meantime, Castro can keep promoting communist and/or socialist principles on his island, while triumphantly showing that steps are being made toward greater degrees of free enterprise.

 

And if the average Cuban sees an increase in the standard of living, the push toward democracy will collapse in short order.

 

Obviously, Obama would like to be historically known as the U.S. president who ended five decades of tension with Cuba and the Castro brothers.   Unfortunately, he’s going about it the wrong way.

  

Michael Taube is a former speechwriter for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.