I’m reassured—indeed, encouraged—indeed, buoyed!—by this morning’s Politico article, “GOP pros fret over Paul Ryan.” “GOP pros” are the stupidest part of “the stupid party.” For one thing, they’re not very professional—why are they using the press to take shots at the Ryan pick in the first place? For another, they’re cowardly—“nearly all the Republican professionals interviewed for this story said they would share their unfiltered views only ‘on background’ rules of attribution.” Most of all, they’re a terrific contrarian indicator.

 When “GOP pros” are most full of fear and apprehension about Republican prospects—for example, Reagan in 1980, Gingrich in 1994, and the Tea Party in 2010—Republicans tend to do well. When they’re confident and complacent—for example, at the George H.W. Bush White House in late 1991 or the George W. Bush White House in early 2005—the GOP is heading for a fall.