1. Generic Ballot. Conflicting numbers last night from Gallup and Rasmussen on the generic ballot. Rasmussen finds a tighter race than earlier, with the GOP holding a three-point lead. Gallup, meanwhile, says that if the election were held today, the Democrats might be on track for a 1920-style debacle, when the Wilsonian version of the party won just 38 percent of the two-party vote.
The Gallup numbers are eyebrow raising, no doubt, and while I think a GOP victory of 10 points is a possibility, the latest Gallup numbers seem to me to be unrealistic. In fact, I get the impression that they’re still rubbing their eyes over at Gallup:
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