The shipping industry has taken a hit due to the coronavirus outbreak, but there are signs that the worst is already passed and that commerce will rebound in the coming weeks.
Delayed and canceled cargoes are still happening in a number of U.S. ports, said Aaron Ellis, spokesman for the American Association of Port Authorities. But the group is also getting reports that shipping conditions in China have nearly returned to pre-outbreak levels, which should cause the U.S. backlog to start clearing.
“In the near-term — probably through April — containerized cargo volumes at many U.S. ports will likely be down by between 10% and 20%,” Ellis told the Washington Examiner. “However, all predictions seem to be that there will be a significant recovery of cargo volumes in [the second quarter of] 2020, and quite likely even some cargo volume records as shippers and carriers try and catch up with demand.”
That forecast presumes the virus is contained and demand for goods still remains, Ellis added. Should the virus situation deteriorate, the demand for goods and the ability to ship them could continue to be curtailed. Ellis said, though, that the scenario was unlikely, at least as far as the shipping industry went. The Coast Guard has the authority to force anyone suspected of being exposed to stay on their ship. It stays in close contact with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to monitor the ports. “USCG Captains of the Ports have complete authority on docking and disembarkment decisions, and they are responsible for being in touch with their local CDC to heavily inform those decisions,” Ellis said.
The Port of Los Angeles was one of the hardest hit, with cargo volumes down 25% in February from the previous year due to cancellations of outbound cargo containers from China. For a few ports, however, business has actually picked up as China’s declines in domestic production have boosted its need for goods from abroad. In late February, the Port of Panama in Florida reported that it was loading its first-ever cargo container ship bound for China.
Shipping in China hit bottom for both exports and imports in mid-February, the Boston-based data company CargoMetrics told the trade publication American Shipper on Tuesday. The decline in imports was driven by dry goods, which are recovering. China’s demand for energy is already back at pre-outbreak levels. The decline in exports was mainly in cargo containers, which are also rebounding.
“We’re seeing improvements across the board. We’re seeing a complete rebound in every segment — it’s all back,” CargoMetrics CEO Scott Borgerson told the trade publication.
